This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
It's a primetime racing weekend, as the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Motor Speedway is set to kick off at 7 pm Eastern on Sunday night. It's the first return to a short track since the unique and compelling race at Bristol two weeks ago, though as a flat track, Richmond has different characteristics and is more similar to the likes of Phoenix, Iowa and Gateway rather than Bristol. The one potential similarity to is that tire fall off is fairly significant in Richmond, though we aren't likely to see the dramatic wear repeat itself from a few weeks ago repeat itself.
With that background in mind, let's get into some picks.
Toyota Owners 400
Tyler Reddick- over 30.5 NASCAR points (top-10 finish with no stage wins)
Reddick hasn't had much success at Richmond, but he's shown pace at the track before and at the comparable tracks listed above. He won the pole in the second race of 2023 before slipping to 16th during the race (he won Stage 1 and finished third in Stage 2). Reddick has also been remarkably fast at Phoenix, posting top-five speed scores in two of the last three races at the location. I'm willing to look past his average finish data at Richmond and bank on a strong performance this weekend.
Denny Hamlin – under 38.5 NASCAR points (top-two finish with no stage wins)
The analysis for Hamlin has nothing to do with his record at the track, it's entirely playing his projection. He has impeccable results in Richmond, including four wins. In addition, Hamlin has notched four top-two finishes at the last six races in Richmond. Even with that in mind, he could have another excellent showing and still fall short of the projection. The probability of him finishing with more than 38.5 points suggests that we should bypass a pick on Hamlin at a minimum, or take the under.
They won't be included as separate picks, but the same logic applies to both Christopher Bell (37.5 points) and Martin Truex Jr. (36.5 points).
Chris Buescher – over 33.5 NASCAR points (top-seven finish with no stage win)
Buescher has really hit his stride at both Phoenix and Richmond to close 2023 and to begin 2024. He won the second race at Richmond last year, closed the season with a fifth-place finish at Phoenix, and then tallied a second-place finish there in 2024. He's put together fast laps on each occasion (second, fourth and 10th in speed ratings), creating a combination of factors to make the over on this projection feel relatively comfortable.
Ryan Blaney – over 30.5 NASCAR points (top-ten finish with no stage wins)
Blaney is in quite a similar position to Reddick, as he's been very fast at most comparable flat short tracks. His form this season is also particularly noteworthy, and specifically how it contrasts to the inconsistency that dominated his career prior to his championship run last season. In the simplest terms, he's finished in the top five in three of six races this season after doing so just eight times in all of 2023. He's ready to turn the raw speed we've seen on flat tracks in the past into results at Richmond.
