This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Another month has gone by and Manchester City are still the favorite to win the Premier League. Their odds haven't changed much despite being three points behind Chelsea. Man City are -125 to win it, while Chelsea are at +225. Following them, Liverpool lost their first match of the season last gameweek and are +400, with West Ham surprisingly next on the list at +5000 and then Arsenal at +6500. Wait… what? Yeah, it appears to be a three-team race, as Man United are nine points back from Chelsea and at +10000 to win the title.
I took Chelsea at +275 a month ago and I still think you can get great value with them. It's a wonder what the odds would look like if they held on for all three points against Burnley, as they'd then be five points ahead of City.
A month ago, I had an inkling to take Southampton at +400 to finish in the top half. Even without James Ward-Prowse, they kept their form and are now +175 to finish top half despite being 13th in the table. From two months ago, I was on Wolves at +330 to finish top half and they are now -110.
That leaves me with a lack of betting options for this break, as it seems most of the value is gone from around the league. I said to take Leicester to finish in the bottom half last article at +200 and while the odds haven't changed much, that's still a hard bet to take. The value is gone from taking Everton to finish bottom half because they're now favored to do so.
For now, I think the top six is pretty stable with Tottenham outside of that bunch. Crystal Palace are intriguing at +175 to finish top half, but again, the odds aren't nearly as good as they were. Even if you put Tottenham in the top seven, there are still three remaining spots to finish in the top half between Brighton, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Southampton and Leeds.
Leeds are the best long shot at +300, but I can't bring myself to bet them right now and it's not like they have an overly favorable upcoming schedule. Tottenham probably have the most favorable schedule over the next month, but there aren't many bets you can do with them at -550 to finish top half.
You can no longer get plus odds on Norwich to finish bottom, as they're about -160 at most places even though they'll have a new manager soon and are coming off a win. They were +250 two months ago and +105 last month, so hopefully you took one of those.
This goes against what I've been saying the first three months of the season, but I think Brentford are at a bit of a crossroads. They have some injuries on their back line and while they are playing well according to underlying numbers, they simply can't score when given the opportunity. Their upcoming schedule will determine a lot with trips to Newcastle, Tottenham and Leeds between home games against Everton and Watford.
Depending on the site, you can get Brentford at +400 in some places to be relegated. If you think Norwich stay at the bottom, there are two other spots. Newcastle are the third favorite to be relegated, but it's expected they'll turn things around with a new manager and owners who will go on a spending binge the next transfer window. There's no value in taking Watford to be relegated, but they've at least shown some life under Claudio Ranieri. Otherwise, Burnley are the other option and they seem to escape relegation every season under Sean Dyche. They just beat Brentford and stole a point from Chelsea, so I'll assume they stay up again.
That leaves Brentford, Aston Villa with a new manager and Leeds. Brentford are just four points above Burnley, so I don't think it's that crazy to think they could be relegated. I mean, they just lost at home to Norwich.
Golden Boot
In terms of goalscoring, it seems to be a runaway with Mohamed Salah already on 10 goals despite failing to score in the last two matches. He's three above Jamie Vardy and four above Sadio Mane and Michail Antonio. Still, that's only good enough to get Salah at -120 to finish with the most goals, mainly because he'll be out the majority of January due to the African Cup of Nations. If you want a different route, Vardy is +1200 and Cristiano Ronaldo is +600. Of note, Vardy doesn't have a shot on target in the last three league matches.
I already have Ronaldo to finish below 21 goals, so I'm not going to touch his number, as he has four goals from eight league matches. He probably makes the most sense because you have to figure Man United will turn things around at some point and he's always in play for one. I was on Romelu Lukaku last month, but then he got injured and he's now +750 for the Golden Boot.
