*These plays were written before Gameweek 9 matches, so if some of the lines have changed or there are injuries, please ignore the analysis. While none of these are official plays, it's still useful to look at some of the early betting lines a week in advance.
The Analysis
I think it makes sense to keep going against the Leicester back line, which has had issues all season. Surprisingly, the over 2.5 goals is almost even odds at -115, so it's pretty good value. It's probably not higher because of Arsenal's relative success, but we've already seen them fall apart against better attacks and in the same fixture last season, this one finished 3-1. I think each team will make mistakes en route to a few goals, similar to Arsenal's recent 2-2 result against Crystal Palace.
There's a perfect parlay situation in the early set of Saturday's matches with Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea playing Brighton, Crystal Palace and Newcastle, respectively. If you parlay them all on the moneyline, it comes out to about +105. A reasonable number. However, I think it's a little safer to avoid Chelsea away from home without some of their top forwards. That leads me to Liverpool -310 combined with Man City -1.5 at -195 for a +100 parlay.
Brighton will put up a fight, but I can't see Liverpool losing at home in this spot. As for Man City, they beat Palace by a combined six goals to zero in two matchups last season and I don't think this one will be different. Palace are battling a little more under Patrick Vieira, but they've already lost 3-0 at both Liverpool and Chelsea. If you want better odds, you could look at both Liverpool and Man City to win in shutouts. In that case, I'd prefer Liverpool at +110 to win to nil.
It's another big game for Manchester United and another spot in which there could be goals. For their trip to Tottenham, the over 2.5 goals is at -115. Both teams are still figuring things out in the early season and this matchup probably won't help. They each have tons of quality up front but some questions on the back line. These teams had the famous 6-1 result early last season, but in April when Man United were cruising, it finished 3-1 with the Red Devils winning in London. I don't care who wins, I just want the goals.
Those are the main things I've noticed in the early lines, as it's hard to project what will happen for teams that are battling injuries like Leeds and Everton. I'd consider the under 2.5 goals between Watford and Southampton, but it's still hard to bet on Watford games under new manager Claudio Ranieri.
For more betting advice this week, make sure to check out this week's Kits & Wagers, our betting podcast.
