This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I could complain about the dumb things happening in the matches I'm betting, but I'm better than that… I think. Instead, I'll suggest not betting any away side unless it's Chelsea, Liverpool or Manchester City. Over the past four gameweeks, only seven away teams have won. That's seven of 40 matches and Aston Villa are the only team not from the top three to secure an away win in that period.
That's a simple stat, but it's clear betting on away teams usually isn't a good idea unless it's one of the better sides. It made sense for Arsenal to be favored at Everton on Monday, but it didn't make sense after watching them play. They've made multiple defensive miscues their last two matches and despite Everton's poor form, playing behind a home crowd still meant everything, even if the Toffee faithful haven't been overly enthused with Rafa Benitez.
Record: 47-39-4. Up $1,146 on $100 bets.
The Plays
As I said above, always bet on the best teams, especially at home. I'm taking the square route to begin this week's picks and parlaying Manchester City (-600), Chelsea (-320) and Liverpool (-425) to win against Wolves, Leeds and Aston Villa, respectively. That comes out to -112 odds and even better for these teams is that all of them rested a few players midweek with nothing to play for in Champions League. There's a decent chance one of these teams drops points, but I'll side with the table and take them all to keep winning.
On the other side of that, I don't think any of those matches are worth singling out. Wolves already gave Liverpool a tough time, while Villa could do the same despite being at Anfield. If anything, Chelsea -1.5 at -105 against Leeds should be looked at. Leeds usually struggle without Kalvin Phillips in the team and it looks like he'll miss Saturday's match. If he's out, I'd be all over the home side. Then again, Chelsea also have injury questions and may have to start Ross Barkley in central midfield.
In my early-week notes, I wrote down Arsenal-Southampton under, but I have no interest in that anymore. Southampton have injuries and suspensions and will be starting Wilfredo Caballero in net. Because of that, I think I'm roping myself into an Arsenal bet. They're -155 to win and -145 to score more than 1.5 goals, so I have to go elsewhere. Instead of taking Arsenal to win in a shutout at +175, I found a smarter bet. You can get Arsenal to win and over 1.5 goals at +100.
In my eyes, the only way this doesn't hit is if Arsenal win just 1-0 or, you know, they lose. That's definitely possible, but Southampton's absences are significant. Southampton kind of fell apart when Oriol Romeu didn't play last season and he's started every match this season (he's suspended for this game). Also, Jack Stephens is set to return to the starting XI for the first time since September and he's being paired with a 40-year-old goalkeeper. I hate trusting Arsenal, but they've won their last four home matches (including League Cup) and they need to get back on track with a win here.
It seems dumb on the surface to bet Norwich, but they've at least shown life under Dean Smith. I was originally off them because of their loss against Tottenham, but I'll bank on a return home to help get back to normal. In two home games under Smith, they beat Southampton 2-1 and drew Wolves 0-0. Manchester United may be rested after rotating midweek, yet that doesn't mean they're back in form. The Red Devils are playing better, but most of those positive results came at home and I'm not sure the 1-1 draw at Chelsea is as good as it looks.
I think Norwich will fight for a point in this spot, so I'm taking them +1 at +125. I think they'll do enough to limit big chances to keep this low scoring. I'm still kind of worried about their goalscoring, though I think they'll do just enough to stay competitive. Clearly, it's not a safe bet, as it's Norwich, but I want to test Man United one more time away from home to see if they are for real.
On the back of my home-team-or-bust strategy, you can get Burnley win or draw at -115 home against West Ham. Sure, West Ham just beat Chelsea, but that also means everyone will be on them in this match and the odds could get better for Burnley. The absence of Maxwel Cornet hurts, but the Hammers lost another center-back last match and may be down to Arthur Masuaku at full-back if Aaron Cresswell can't return. West Ham won both matchups last season, yet they weren't overly dominant and I'm hoping Burnley can find just enough to get a point from this one. I hate betting on Burnley, but this is a good spot to get them in, having secured points in five of their last six and four of their last five at home.
I was on Tottenham draw no bet at +110 but figured taking 'No' on both teams to score at -110 was the better route. I like under 2.5 goals, but it's at -150 and not worth taking. The main thing in this game is that Brighton may have to change their formation because they're down almost every center-back. Dan Burn and Joel Veltman may be asked to start there, which probably wouldn't work well. Leandro Trossard is also a doubt after losing feeling in his arm last match. I assume this will be lower scoring, especially with Antonio Conte leading the other team. I'm still not sold on Tottenham away from home and combined with Brighton's injuries, that leads me to a scoreless draw or 1-0 result to either side. Of note, there's a decent chance this match isn't played because of Tottenham's COVID-19 issues.
I was set to take over 2.5 goals between Leicester and Newcastle and then I saw the -180 odds. Apparently, I'm not the only one who thinks there will be goals between these teams. Instead of completely passing, I kind of like both teams to score and no draw at +125.
It's not a bet I consider often because it was requires at least three goals, but it's hard to see this one being low scoring. That's been the case in recent Newcastle games, but they've also played Norwich and Burnley in their last two. There have been at least three goals in each of Leicester's last four matches, partly because they can't keep anyone out of the back of the net. If you really think there will be goals, both teams to score in the first half is +285.
