This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There's no time to rest ahead of Gameweek 17, as all teams either have only two or three full days off between matches. That could mean rotation to starting lineups, something that isn't predictable. That being the case, analyzing these matches will be a bit tougher, but even if guys like Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are rested, that won't stop me from backing Liverpool at home.
Record: 50-40-5. Up $1,322 on $100 bets.
The Plays
Manchester United were anointed a top-four team after getting Ralf Rangnick and then they were outplayed by Norwich and were maybe lucky to win over the weekend. I'd take Brentford win or draw at +105 in a lot of cases, but they're down numerous defenders, so it's kind of hard to bet them in this spot on a short week.
Dean Smith left on fairly good terms from Aston Villa about a month ago, so it'll be kind of weird to see him with Norwich in this game. I'm not sure what that means in terms of the matchup, but I'm all about the under. Since under 2.5 goals is -135, I'm taking 'No' on both teams to score at -105, which are pretty good odds given how defensive these teams have been under new managers. There have been four clean sheets in Norwich's last four matches, while Villa have been pretty consistent at limiting good looks under Steven Gerrard. They almost stole a point from Liverpool last match and I expect both sides to struggle to get good opportunities in this matchup.
It's hard to see the Brighton-Wolverhampton match not going the same way, which is why 'No' on both teams to score is -145. You could go the other way and bank on goals or go all the way and bet the scoreless draw at +700. One team has failed to score in each of the last six matches for Wolves and two of those were scoreless. I'd bold this out, but it almost seems inevitable that Neal Maupay will get a stoppage-time winner because that's what he does. The absence of Raul Jimenez makes me hesitant to back Wolves, though I like them against a Brighton team battling injuries and suspensions.
Maybe this sounds weird, but Crystal Palace are probably a deeper team than Southampton and they're in a better position injury wise. The Saints get a couple players back from suspension, but they still have Wilfredo Caballero in net and a bevy of injuries in the attack. Palace have also played well at home this season, only losing once (to Aston Villa), while recently beating teams like Wolves and Everton. On a short week, the depth of Palace could shine through the most and this is also around the time when things kind of fell off the track for Southampton last season, as injuries and matches piled up. That leads me to Crystal Palace at +125 to win with an eye on the +265 for a shutout win, depending on how the starting XIs look.
Leicester have won their last three home matches (including UEL) and while this is a step up in competition, it remains unclear who actually tested positive for COVID-19 on Tottenham. Either all of the regulars will be out or if they're in the squad, there's a chance they haven't been training for a week. The possible loss of Jonny Evans doesn't give me that much confidence, but Leicester are scoring on everyone and I think getting them at +110 odds to win is pretty good, and the COVID-19 issues of Tottenham only help. This is no longer a bolded play. Leicester are down all of their center-backs and are struggling to field a complete team due to COVID-19 and injuries.
On a short week, I have my eye on a lot of home teams, which has been a pretty safe strategy of late. Manchester United were the only away side to win over the weekend, making it eight away wins from the last 48 league matches, seven of those going to bigger clubs.
My home parlay barely hit last week with Chelsea getting their key win from a late penalty. Instead of fading them, I'm now going all in on the Blues at home against Everton, who again started Fabian Delph last match. If Delph starts again, I'll feel even better about this bet. So, I'll take Chelsea -1.5 (-125), Man City ML (-750) and Liverpool ML (-900) to get +126 odds. I'm most worried about Man City against Leeds and depending on the lineup, I'd be willing to take Liverpool by more than one goal. For now, I'll stick with Chelsea to win by a couple, aided by a return to the starting XI for Romelu Lukaku.
