This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Everything went my way in Gameweek 27 which means be wary of my picks this week. I hit on all four picks from my article and even everything I mentioned on Kits & Wagers happened (Aston Villa ML, Watford +1.5), culminating in my draw prediction between Chelsea and Liverpool in the League Cup final.
While I may not hit every pick in Gameweek 28, I will say that betting is a hot and cold thing. I'm apparently running hot at the moment and betting metrics would likely suggest that I'll find more winners this week. I maybe won't repeat the 17-2 run I had the first three weeks of the season, but there's no reason I can't come close.
Record: 70-62-6. Up $1,186 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I spent some time figuring out how Jesse Marsch would run things at Leeds, whether he'd roll with a 4-2-3-1 or maybe a 3-4-2-1, something he used throughout his short time at RB Leipzig. No matter, 13 of the 19 matches he managed at Leipzig produced at least three goals. I'm probably testing my luck a little too much, but Leicester are already a team that prefers to attack than to defend, so I'm going goals. Over 2.5 is -170 and both teams to score is -185, so I'll take both teams to score no draw at +120. It probably makes more sense to take Leicester -125 to win, but I'll go with the bigger result and hope one team wins in a higher-scoring match.
I had Burnley +1.5 lined up against Chelsea, but I'll sit this one out, especially with those odds at -145 as of writing. I also think the busy schedule is getting to Burnley a bit and I'd rather save my money for a better team.
It may be best to not bet the Aston Villa and Southampton matchup, but I found a bet I like that is close to even odds. Despite pointing out Villa on the moneyline last week, it wasn't an official bet because they've burned me too often. Instead of picking a side, I'm going with goals because Southampton seem to be scoring against everyone and have also allowed multiple goals in eight of their last nine trips in all competitions. You can get over 2.5 goals at -125 and both teams to score at -170, so I'm combining them to get -105 odds. I think both teams will score with the hope that it doesn't finish 1-1. The only thing worrying about this bet are the last three matches for Villa in which only four total goals have been scored.
As usual, the Wolverhampton match is expected to be tight and low scoring. I considered under 1.5 goals but didn't want to lose to a 2-0 finish. These teams played to a 2-0 result for Palace earlier in the season in which Wolves managed just four shots and .28 expected goals. I think something similar will happen, though I don't prefer a side so I'll simply take 'No' on both teams to score at -135. It's not a great number, but given the prior meeting and how Wolves play in general, it seems like a safe enough play. If the number gets above -140 I'd probably pass on it.
I was looking at West Ham +1.5 at +100 but noticed the -120 odds on 'Yes' for both teams to score. Over 2.5 goals is -200 and while most of that is because of Liverpool, it's not like West Ham are a bottom-tier side. The Hammers won the reverse fixture 3-2 and have scored in the last four meetings between these clubs. While I'm not overly excited about their current form, I think this will be a fun match with both sides getting quality opportunities and I think the away team will find the back of the net at some point.
Man United have actually had the upper hand in recent Manchester derbies. They've won three of the last six and most interesting is that they've won the last three meetings at the Etihad. That stat is most troubling to me and the main reason I'm not taking Man City to win with a clean sheet. One team has failed to score in the last six meetings between them and there's been just nine goals scored in those matches.
You can get 'No' on both teams to score at -105, but I'd rather look at under 2.5 goals at +135. These odds seem a little too good to pass up and are only here because of Man City's scoring prowess. However, throw in Man United's penchant to play a little more defensive under Ralf Rangnick and this is another matchup that's set to be fairly quiet on the scoreboard. There's a chance Man City win 3-0 and this blows up in my face, but I think this will be a tight match that neither team really dominates for a full 90.
