This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
At one point this season, there was a trend of away teams almost never winning. Those days are long gone as seen in the most recent gameweek. Watford, out of nowhere, took a full three points at Southampton, a team that had a stout home record leading up to the match. I didn't see it coming and I'm not sure many did. Unfortunately, that's the Premier League and the sport in general. There's a lot of unpredictability on a match-by-match basis, especially when the fixtures pile up.
Elsewhere, I doubt anyone predicted a mid-table Crystal Palace to hold Manchester City scoreless in two matches. Man City had chances in the most recent meeting Monday, they just couldn't capitalize, similar to the first meeting.
Unfortunately, due to FA Cup, Gameweek 30 only has four matches, so I won't have a ton of plays. I'm also not big on writing up FA Cup matches since it's more likely rotation will occur than in league play. That being the case, I'd probably look at Crystal Palace +115 to beat Everton in 90 minutes.
Record: 73-68-6. Up $950 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
After one win, the oddsmakers have flocked to Leeds as they have about the same odds to win as Aston Villa this weekend. I'm not buying it. Even though Leeds won last week, they were seconds away from a 1-1 result despite controlling the majority of the match. Now at Wolverhampton, who have allowed one goal in the prior three meetings, I have to go with the home side at plus odds.
After some difficult results, Wolves seem to be back to normal, beating Watford and Everton in their last two. I'm slightly worried Patrick Bamford is getting closer to full health, but I'll trust the Wolves back line instead, as well as Raul Jimenez and the attack to put one past this nervy group. Jesse Marsch is feeling better after getting a win, but he'll need to work wonders to steal three points in this spot. I feel good about Wolves +120 to win against a team that has allowed 36 goals in 14 away matches.
West Ham burned me last week and I'm still not sure how it happened, as it seemed like they got better after Michail Antonio and Aaron Cresswell left injured against Aston Villa. No matter, I'm going against them again. Their injury list continues to pile up and while both played midweek, Tottenham have an extra day of rest after winning at Brighton on Wednesday and they're -140.
Tottenham have had some weird results under Antonio Conte, but they've scored at least two goals in five of Dejan Kulusevski's six starts, which has to mean something. They aren't having trouble hitting the back of the net and that's why I'll take them in a simple -140 moneyline win. West Ham have injuries, but they don't often lose by more than one goal, which is why I can't go the -1.5 route. A win and clean sheet is in play as well or even Harry Kane to score at +105.
I swear I'm not going to bet Aston Villa every week, but they're at home and an underdog which is enough for me. Arsenal don't rotate a ton and they played an intense match against Liverpool on Wednesday. That leads me to another draw no bet call on Villa at +120. Their results have been a bit all over and Arsenal have won their last four away, but this seems like a perfect spot for the Gunners to falter again.
Of note, three of Arsenal's last four away wins came against teams battling relegation and their other was a win at Wolves after barely holding on after scoring in the 25th minute. I think Villa will limit Arsenal's good chances and if the away side score, I believe in Philippe Coutinho and company to equalize or find a winner at home.
