This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Following last gameweek's record-breaking 44 goals scored, there were 36 in Gameweek 3, which means we're on the verge of a trend. Some of this could be due to matchups, but it could also be due to the minimal summer break and Cup matches taking place every midweek between league contests. That fixture overload may lead to some tired legs, and that's why teams like Manchester City and Wolverhampton are giving up five and four goals in a match, respectively.
But even if tired legs were the issue, there'd be more predictability to some results. Instead, Southampton and Leeds United, two of the worst defenses through two matches, held clean sheets last weekend. Spurs, drunk off their five-goal performance and UEFA win, fell into a 1-1 draw to Newcastle despite putting 12 shots on target.
LAST WEEK
That unpredictability has led to a lot of losses for this article. Some of that blame can be put on me for deciding Aleksandar Mitrovic and Ollie Watkins to score first was a good bet. Actually, all of the blame can be put on me for also taking Burnley and thinking Sheffield United would hit an over. At least there are 35 gameweeks left.
In all, I'm down to 6-9 overall (2-1 in parlays).
THE WEEK AHEAD
My best bet (outside of parlays) has been taking moneylines on the gameweek opener, but I'm not giving out Chelsea -250 as a play. I also have no interest in the over/under numbers because over 2.5 goals is -175. Instead, I think you can get decent value on Crystal Palace in this spot, especially since home-field advantage isn't in play.
Chelsea have yet to figure out who they are as a team, and a midweek Cup match against Tottenham is unlikely to help their fitness level. In addition to not playing midweek, Palace beat Man United in their last away match and put in a respectable fight last weekend against Everton, a team in better form than Chelsea. That leads me to Crystal Palace +1 at +135. They're playing well enough that a win or draw wouldn't be surprising, and if they lose by a goal, you'll get your money back.
Saturday also features Manchester City fresh off a 5-2 loss. Betting them at -305 to win is as close to a guarantee as you'll get because they haven't lost back-to-back league matches since December 2018 and I don't think Leeds United are the team to break that streak. In addition to Man City -1.5 at -112, you can get over 3.5 goals at -112 and Man City over 2.5 goals at -114. I'd probably lean toward the overs because Leeds have shown they can score goals against everyone, losing 4-3 to Liverpool in their opener. If you think something similar happens, Leeds United are +1000 to score more than two goals. I'm leaning on Man City over 2.5 goals in the case they win 3-0. Of note, they've held a clean sheet in each of their last six matches following a league loss.
While it burned me last week, I still think Southampton are a bit overrated. At -134 to beat West Brom, they are just as likely as Everton are to beat Brighton. Sure, they beat Burnley, but outside of scoring in the fifth minute, they didn't get another shot on target the rest of the way. Throw in the scoring confidence of West Brom, who have five goals against Chelsea and Everton, and I think this is a good spot for the underdog. While the Baggies to win at +370 is enticing, I like the win or draw option at +112. There will be goals in this match, and I'd rather back the team who has more than one goal scorer.
Elsewhere on Sunday, there's a clear parlay on the table with Arsenal -177 (v. Sheffield United) and Wolverhampton -190 (v. Fulham) playing at the same time. Arsenal took one point from Sheffield United last season, but their last meeting was in January. The Gunners are looking to rebound from Monday's loss, while the Blades have yet to score this season. It's a similar case for Wolves, who are coming off a bad loss and facing maybe the worst team in the league. Fulham lost 3-0 to Aston Villa and it's a prime rebound spot for Raul Jimenez and Co. Those two moneylines combined turns into +140, a decent rate.
I'm also keen on the Manchester United moneyline, though not enough to throw them into a parlay. They're at almost even odds (-105) to beat Tottenham and that's enough to put them in the mix. Sure, they aren't playing well, but Spurs had two midweek matches, meaning they had minimal time to prepare for this matchup, not to mention the recent injury to Son Heung-Min. At some point, Man United will figure things out again, and while it may not be this match, I think they have enough to beat what could be a fatigued side.
THE BETS
Crystal Palace +1 +135
Manchester City over 2.5 goals -114
West Brom win or draw +112
Parlay: Arsenal ML -177 and Wolves ML -190 = +140
Parlay: Manchester City ML (-305), Southampton/WestBrom over 2.5 goals (-130), LeicesterCity/WestHam over 1.5 goals (-500) = +182
