DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Werder Bremen v. Eintracht Frankfurt Showdown Preview

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Werder Bremen v. Eintracht Frankfurt Showdown Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

Eintracht Frankfurt are +148 favorites (DraftKings Sportsbook) away to Werder Bremen (+175) on Wednesday, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at -136 versus +110 for the under. The potential for a low-scoring game comes from Werder Bremen's defense, which hasn't allowed a goal in the past three games. Unfortunately, they only scored two goals in that span. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt's matches have basically been goal-fests, with goal totals coming in at four, seven, six and three in their four matches, respectively, since the league's restart. Over that time, Frankfurt have scored eight while allowing 12, including three to Borussia Monchengladbach in the opener and five to Bayern Munich the game after.

From a DFS perspective, only one player matters in this game: Filip Kostic ($11,600). The league-leader in floor points (total fantasy points minus goals and assists) by a margin of 106.6, Kostic also only trails Timo Werner (25 goals and seven assists) and Robert Lewandowski (29 goals and three assists) in total fantasy points despite having only four goals and nine assists this season. For further reference, the 106.6-point gap between Kostic and second-place Joshua Kimmich is more than the difference between Kimmich and Bastian Oczipka, who has the 20th-most floor points this season. Kostic is the league leader in crosses, having sent in 309 in 2,419 minutes over 27 games, equating to 11.50 per 90 minutes. The next-highest player (200 minutes minimum) is Florian Kainz at 10.28, and he's only played 1,313 minutes. The reason this is

Eintracht Frankfurt are +148 favorites (DraftKings Sportsbook) away to Werder Bremen (+175) on Wednesday, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at -136 versus +110 for the under. The potential for a low-scoring game comes from Werder Bremen's defense, which hasn't allowed a goal in the past three games. Unfortunately, they only scored two goals in that span. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt's matches have basically been goal-fests, with goal totals coming in at four, seven, six and three in their four matches, respectively, since the league's restart. Over that time, Frankfurt have scored eight while allowing 12, including three to Borussia Monchengladbach in the opener and five to Bayern Munich the game after.

From a DFS perspective, only one player matters in this game: Filip Kostic ($11,600). The league-leader in floor points (total fantasy points minus goals and assists) by a margin of 106.6, Kostic also only trails Timo Werner (25 goals and seven assists) and Robert Lewandowski (29 goals and three assists) in total fantasy points despite having only four goals and nine assists this season. For further reference, the 106.6-point gap between Kostic and second-place Joshua Kimmich is more than the difference between Kimmich and Bastian Oczipka, who has the 20th-most floor points this season. Kostic is the league leader in crosses, having sent in 309 in 2,419 minutes over 27 games, equating to 11.50 per 90 minutes. The next-highest player (200 minutes minimum) is Florian Kainz at 10.28, and he's only played 1,313 minutes. The reason this is important for Wednesday's match is because Werder Bremen have allowed more crosses than any team in the Bundesliga this season, conceding an average of 23.89 per game while Eintracht Frankfurt, certainly helped by Kostic, average a league-high 26.32. Additionally, Bremen have conceded the third-most chances created per game (11.61) this season while Frankfurt's 11.36 per game trail only Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen. And finally, Bremen have allowed 14.86 shots per game, the fourth-most in the Bundesliga, while Frankfurt have taken 15.21, the third-most. You can try to make a case for fading Kostic, but you're arguing against a guy who plays for a team that has all of those stats and has been responsible for 41.93 percent of their crosses, 21.38 percent of their chances created, 16.67 percent of their shots, 17.11 percent of their shots on target and 11.04 percent of their fouls drawn. 

Eintracht Frankfurt Player Shares

PlayerGASSOTCCCRCRNPFSTKLWINTFC
Filip Kostic9.1%26.5%16.7%17.1%21.4%41.9%51.4%6.0%11.0%10.4%6.6%8.7%
Daichi Kamada4.5%5.9%9.2%10.5%8.8%10.2%29.1%4.8%10.0%5.0%2.2%6.1%
Martin Hinteregger18.2%2.9%9.6%10.5%2.5%2.6%0.0%11.1%9.4%14.5%9.4%6.7%
Goncalo Paciencia15.9%8.8%12.0%11.8%6.9%2.7%0.0%2.1%8.0%1.6%0.3%8.2%
Djibril Sow2.3%5.9%4.7%1.3%7.5%4.9%9.1%6.8%10.0%8.2%8.8%9.3%
Sebastian Rode4.5%8.8%2.6%3.3%6.3%2.2%6.3%8.3%6.0%8.8%8.8%9.0%
Andre Silva15.9%5.9%9.4%9.9%8.2%0.8%0.0%2.7%5.0%0.6%1.6%3.5%
Almamy Toure2.3%8.8%3.1%3.3%6.3%9.5%0.0%4.3%1.7%6.0%6.3%3.2%
Timothy Chandler11.4%2.9%4.5%5.3%3.8%7.9%0.0%2.2%3.7%3.1%3.8%3.8%
Dominik Kohr0.0%5.9%5.2%5.9%4.1%1.2%2.3%4.7%3.7%7.2%7.5%9.3%
Bas Dost11.4%2.9%6.1%9.2%4.1%0.1%0.0%2.5%3.7%1.9%1.3%2.0%
Danny da Costa2.3%8.8%3.5%2.0%5.3%8.4%0.0%2.5%1.7%3.8%4.7%1.7%
Mijat Gacinovic0.0%2.9%5.2%4.6%3.8%1.5%0.6%2.3%6.4%3.1%4.7%5.0%
Makoto Hasebe0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.8%0.1%0.0%11.1%7.4%5.0%6.6%1.7%
Obite Evan N'Dicka0.0%2.9%1.6%0.7%2.2%1.1%0.0%5.9%2.3%4.1%7.5%3.5%
David Abraham2.3%0.0%1.4%2.0%0.6%0.7%0.0%6.0%2.7%3.8%7.2%2.3%
Erik Durm0.0%0.0%3.3%2.0%1.3%2.6%0.6%1.3%1.3%1.9%0.9%1.2%
Gelson Fernandes0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%0.0%2.4%0.7%6.0%5.0%7.3%
Stefan Ilsanker0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%1.3%0.4%0.0%3.3%1.7%2.8%3.1%2.9%
Lucas Torro0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.8%1.7%1.3%1.3%1.2%
Kevin Trapp0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%0.3%0.0%0.9%0.0%
Jonathan de Guzman0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.3%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.6%
Ante Rebic0.0%0.0%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.5%
Frederik Ronnow0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Simon Falette0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%0.0%0.9%0.0%
Dejan Joveljic0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.3%0.6%0.0%1.2%
Felix Wiedwald0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

In fact, if you sum the player share percentages for shots, chances created and crosses, Kostic is No. 1 in the Bundesliga in that too:

RankTeamPlayerSCCCRSum of %s
1Eintracht FrankfurtFilip Kostic16.67%21.38%41.93%79.98%
2FC AugsburgPhilipp Max9.35%21.82%43.17%74.34%
3SC FreiburgChristian Gunter7.96%23.36%42.68%74.00%
4Union BerlinChristopher Trimmel0.85%23.87%42.12%66.84%
5SC PaderbornKai Proger13.17%16.02%37.39%66.57%
6VfL WolfsburgMaximilian Arnold13.37%20.98%24.56%58.91%
7Werder BremenMilot Rashica18.68%14.07%25.41%58.16%
81899 HoffenheimRobert Skov14.02%15.52%25.71%55.25%
9FC Schalke 04Bastian Oczipka2.69%16.67%34.34%53.70%
10FC Schalke 04Daniel Caligiuri10.78%15.00%26.77%52.55%
11RB LeipzigChristopher Nkunku10.02%19.47%20.57%50.06%
12Borussia DortmundThorgan Hazard11.00%16.14%22.45%49.59%
131. FC KölnFlorian Kainz9.21%15.09%24.71%49.01%
14RB LeipzigTimo Werner22.76%11.20%13.60%47.55%
15RB LeipzigMarcel Sabitzer14.20%14.67%18.43%47.29%
16Fortuna DüsseldorfErik Thommy13.14%13.52%20.51%47.18%
17Hertha BSC BerlinVladimir Darida10.59%18.33%18.14%47.07%
18Borussia DortmundJadon Sancho12.53%19.30%14.74%46.57%
19Bayern MunichJoshua Kimmich4.10%15.24%27.04%46.38%
20FSV Mainz 05Daniel Brosinski4.96%13.73%24.07%42.76%
21MönchengladbachAlassane Plea18.59%12.59%9.46%40.63%
22FC AugsburgMarco Richter18.71%8.18%13.17%40.06%
23FC AugsburgFlorian Niederlechner22.26%13.18%4.39%39.83%
24Werder BremenLeonardo Bittencourt11.21%11.79%16.39%39.39%
25Bayer LeverkusenNadiem Amiri8.58%13.33%16.53%38.45%

This is just a very long way of saying Kostic is going to be the highest-owned player in cash games and GPPs and likely the most-captained player. Fading him is certainly a more viable strategy in tournaments because you might be able to make up his floor with a plethora of goals if he's not involved at all, but for cash games it just doesn't seem worth it.

Using Kostic as captain leaves $32,600 in salary, an average of $6,520 per spot. You could try to get by with Kostic in a regular flex spot, which means you'll have $7,680 left per position, in which case you could feel more comfortable rostering guys like Andre Silva ($9,200), who has three goals, including one penalty, on 11 shots in the past four games, and Daichi Kamada ($8,400), who has two goals on eight shots (six on target) in the past two. Both players obviously have shown their upsides recently, but they still don't hold a candle to Kostic in terms of floor, especially at their prices. Squad rotation could get us some cheap attacking players where it would make it easier to pair Kostic with one or both of Silva and Kamada, but it won't be easy.

A cheaper option could be Sebastian Rode ($5,200), a holding midfielder who shares corners with Kostic (yes, Kostic is able to rack up all those stats even without a monopoly of set pieces). Rode was actually awful last weekend against Wolfburg, scoring just 0.8 fantasy points, but he went for 9.0, 21.5 and 11.3 in the previous three games, respectively, including three assists in that span. Rode isn't the most exciting option, but he's likely to be highly owned in cash games with people who roster Kostic because he's relatively cheap and you get basically all of Frankfurt's dead-ball opportunities (Kamada has also taken set pieces this season, but not over Kostic and Rode). Frankfurt's right-back is also very capable fantasy-point scorer, with Almamy Toure ($7,400) seemingly an option to come back into the lineup after sitting last weekend. If he stays on the bench, Timothy Chandler ($7,600) is fine though not nearly as consistent. Otherwise, you're left with central defenders or midfielders who don't join in the attack much, though Mijat Gacinovic ($4,400) could provide some attacking upside if he keeps his spot in the starting XI. He wasn't overly impressive in 84 minutes against Wolfsburg, but the price is tough to ignore when you have others worth paying up for.

The Bremen side is a bit interesting because we could have a big shift in set pieces...or not. Both Leonardo Bittencourt ($9,600) and Milot Rashica ($10,200) left Saturday's match against Schalke early due to injuries, though both were determined to be minor and they should be fit for Wednesday's match. Whether that means fit enough to start or not remains a question, though it also seems likely they won't play 90 minutes. That was pretty much the case anyway with Bittencourt, who has been subbed in eight of his last 10 starts, while Rashica is more consistently playing between 85 and 90. Rashica has some of the highest anytime goal scorer odds among expected starters, though at +210 you're not really playing him for that anyway. There doesn't seem to be a viable build with both Bittencourt and Rashica because you're using so much salary on an underdog, though at least you're getting 41.80 percent of the team's crosses, 29.89 percent of their shots and 25.86 percent of their chances created. At the very least, both of them and Kostic really doesn't leave much room for players other than the biggest of punts, and that's not even counting them as captain.

Werder Bremen Player Shares

PlayerGASSOTCCCRCRNPFSTKLWINTFC
Milot Rashica25.0%22.7%18.7%22.3%14.1%25.4%33.1%3.8%11.5%3.9%1.4%7.4%
Leonardo Bittencourt14.3%9.1%11.2%9.8%11.8%16.4%14.3%5.4%13.2%7.7%2.9%12.6%
Davy Klaassen14.3%18.2%10.3%12.5%12.2%2.5%0.0%8.1%8.2%12.3%9.8%6.8%
Nuri Sahin0.0%13.6%3.4%1.8%10.6%15.0%37.6%5.7%4.1%5.6%10.7%6.0%
Maximilian Eggestein0.0%9.1%11.5%8.9%11.0%4.1%0.0%8.4%8.0%8.1%7.8%7.7%
Marco Friedl3.6%4.5%2.6%2.7%4.9%10.0%6.8%6.9%9.6%12.0%6.1%7.1%
Yuya Osako14.3%4.5%8.6%8.9%8.0%1.4%0.0%3.7%8.0%3.5%0.9%6.0%
Theodor Gebre Selassie7.1%0.0%1.7%2.7%3.8%4.5%0.0%7.5%4.4%7.7%16.2%4.9%
Josh Sargent10.7%9.1%5.7%7.1%3.4%1.0%0.0%1.8%7.1%1.8%3.2%3.6%
Ludwig Augustinsson0.0%4.5%0.6%0.0%4.9%8.0%6.8%2.2%1.9%4.2%2.0%3.6%
Niklas Moisander0.0%0.0%3.2%1.8%1.5%0.6%0.0%10.3%3.0%3.5%11.0%5.7%
Niclas Fullkrug7.1%4.5%4.0%7.1%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.6%1.6%0.4%0.3%2.2%
Milos Veljkovic0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%6.8%1.9%10.6%4.9%3.3%
Johannes Eggestein3.6%0.0%4.3%5.4%2.3%2.7%1.5%1.4%1.6%2.1%0.6%2.2%
Christian Gross0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.4%0.4%0.0%3.9%2.2%4.9%4.0%4.1%
Kevin Vogt0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%4.5%2.5%2.1%5.2%3.6%
Michael Lang0.0%0.0%1.4%1.8%1.1%3.7%0.0%2.2%0.8%1.8%2.0%1.4%
Philipp Bargfrede0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.4%0.6%0.0%1.7%1.6%3.9%3.8%3.0%
Omer Toprak0.0%0.0%1.1%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.0%4.3%1.4%0.7%3.5%1.6%
Davie Selke0.0%0.0%2.9%3.6%1.1%0.6%0.0%0.7%1.1%0.0%0.0%2.5%
Jiri Pavlenka0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%6.1%0.8%0.0%1.4%0.0%
Claudio Pizarro0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.5%1.9%0.4%0.6%0.3%
Sebastian Langkamp0.0%0.0%1.1%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%1.4%0.4%1.2%1.1%
Fin Bartels0.0%0.0%1.1%1.8%1.1%0.8%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.7%0.0%1.1%
Benjamin Goller0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.8%0.8%0.0%0.6%1.4%1.1%0.3%1.1%
Kevin Mohwald0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.5%
Nick Woltemade0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
Stefanos Kapino0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.0%0.3%0.0%
Luc Ihorst0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%
Martin Harnik0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%

One cost-saving option from Werder Bremen is Marco Friedl ($5,800), who has scored at least 11.8 fantasy points in each of the past two games, though both included clean sheet bonuses. More importantly, Friedl has taken set pieces in each of the past three games, including a team-high eight (six corners and two free kick crosses) this past weekend when Rashica took three and Bittencourt zero. Another positive: Friedl's minutes seem very secure if he starts. That "if" is because Ludwig Augustinsson ($5,800) could be an option if they feel Friedl needs a rest, and while Augustinsson isn't guaranteed to get Friedl's set pieces, his path will be clearer if Bittencourt and Rashica can't start.

Davy Klaassen ($7,200) is the highest-priced Werder Bremen player not named Rashica and Bittencourt, which says more about Bremen than Klaassen. His floor has been surprisingly consistent of late, though getting six or seven points at his salary probably isn't enough when there are central midfielders and fullbacks who are cheaper. If you're looking for the Bremen goals and not wanting to rely on Rashica, Josh Sargent ($4,800) is pretty cheap if he gets the start, and the same can be said about Davie Selke ($3,600). Neither has a floor, but they presumably have goal-scoring upside because they're playing as advanced as you can get. If floor is what you're after in this price range, Maximilian Eggestein ($3,800) is fine for those who don't want to punt all the way down, even though there are always people who do and you just have to get lucky that the center-back you gave absolutely no actual thought to scores.

Playing a goalkeeper isn't the craziest idea, though with Bremen putting more than three shots on goal just three times in the past 16 games, it's tough to see a ceiling game out of Kevin Trapp ($6,600), who has more negative scores than double digits in his past 10 games. Instead, Jiri Pavlenka ($6,200) could be a valuable piece after scoring at least 12.3 fantasy points in three straight games. Granted, all were clean sheets and two were wins. However, the save upside is probably there, as Eintracht Frankfurt come in with the third-most shots per game this season, including the sixth-most shots on goal. Sure, he could get lit up, but the defense has played well of late and they are at home.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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