This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
A clash of two big six clubs takes place in North London on Thursday, as Tottenham host Manchester United in the quarterfinals of the EFL Cup.
Tottenham got things back on track routing Southampton 5-0 over the weekend. Ange Postecoglou's job has been in question the past few weeks and while coming off a nice win, Spurs have been a very hot and cold team the last two seasons. A win in this spot and trip to the semifinals to get Tottenham on the doorstep of winning their first trophy in forever would certainly be a step in the right direction.
Manchester United stole all three points in the Manchester derby over the weekend to give Ruben Amorim his first signature win as boss. They were ripped apart by Tottenham earlier in the season (3-0 at Old Trafford on Sept. 29), so they will be out for revenge Thursday.
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EFL Cup Best Bets for Tottenham vs. Manchester United
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
This match is likely to be high scoring because of the way Tottenham play and their injury situation. Micky Van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Ben Davies are all going to miss this match, which means that it's going to be another Radu Dragusin and Archie Gray center-back pairing. That also means Tottenham will have to be really good building in wide areas with Manchester United pressing them high.
Manchester United locked up Erling Haaland in the Manchester derby, but City's wingers were afforded a lot of one-on-one situations. Assuming he starts, the one guy who pops off the page for Tottenham is Brennan Johnson.
The Welsh winger leads Tottenham in both expected goals and shots per 90 minutes this season, but he's fourth on the odds board for Tottenham to score. At +220 I think there is a lot of value on him to find the back of the net.
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Betting on Player Shots
The star of the Manchester derby was without a doubt Amad Diallo. Winning the penalty and scoring the match-clinching goal put him forever in the history books of a great rivalry. He's now a mainstay on Amorim's team sheet and likely will have his production increase week after week.
After Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho, Diallo is averaging the third most shots for Manchester United at 2.44 per 90 minutes. That's more than both Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Hojlund, among others.
Given Tottenham's defensive situation and the way they play building out in a 2-3-5 with their full-backs inverting when in possession, that leaves a lot of space in the wide areas.
Not only will Diallo be afforded space, but he has license to get into the box, as well. I love him to have over 1.5 shots at -150 odds.
Betting on Corners
While I think Manchester United press Tottenham high, they will do it cautiously. The best way to beat Tottenham is to sit in a low defensive block and deny space through the middle.
Spurs don't have wingers who can consistently beat full-backs in one-on-one situations, so Manchester United will likely sit in a 5-3-2 and force Tottenham to break them down. That likes means Tottenham will be the one that tilts the field and sustains pressure in United's final third.
For the season, Tottenham are tied with Arsenal averaging the second most corners at home (8.9), while Manchester United are averaging only 4.4 corners away from Old Trafford. Under Amorim, that number has been even worse.
At basically even odds, I like the value on Tottenham -0.5 corners (-110).
Tottenham vs. Manchester United EFL Cup Betting Picks
- Brennan Johnson Anytime Goalscorer (+220)
- Amad Diallo over 1.5 shots (-150)
- Tottenham -0.5 corners (-110)
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