This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Mistakes were made last weekend. I had the correct strategy of backing non-public sides in Wolves and Leeds United, I just backed the wrong ones, as Everton and Aston Villa came through in big wins. Fortunately, I hit all of my picks on Kits & Wagers so still ended the week in a positive, at least for my public plays.
Kits & Wagers reviewed three matches for the weekend ahead, highlighted by Arsenal home against Nottingham Forest. If you want more bets, Adam is 25-11 on the show.
Record: 28-18-1. Up $1,013 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Leicester City
Manchester City moneyline +115 up to 30th minute against Leicester City
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I think Leicester will once again be exposed in this matchup (they lost 6-3 in the last meeting). They scored a ridiculous four goals from five shots (.89 expected goals) last match and that's not going to happen against Man City. This is the first top-10 team they've played since the 6-2 loss to Tottenham and I think it could get ugly if Man City score early.
For Leicester to have a chance, they'll need to be lucky and then score on the counter. They're going to defend the majority of this match and their hopes rest on Danny Ward and success on the counter. Instead of taking Man City -2.5 or even -1.5 (-140) in a parlay, I'll grab them to score early and hold onto that edge. Man City are best in the league at scoring early and this bet is one of my favorites against mediocre sides.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace moneyline -105 to beat Southampton
I don't like the way Crystal Palace have been playing, but they're back home and I'd be surprised if they came out flat in back-to-back matches. Patrick Vieira has done a solid job in his short time managing the team and for the most part, they usually aren't noticeably bad in consecutive games. While they haven't been playing well, I'm still not sold on Southampton, who haven't lost in their last three. If they win this one, I may change my mind, but I can't envision Lyanco at right-back dealing with Wilfried Zaha all that well. I thought the same for Gabriel Martinelli last match and that didn't matter, but we'll see how the Saints play away from home against a team that draws the most fouls in the league.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham at Bournemouth
Under 2.5 goals -110 between Bournemouth and Tottenham
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Tottenham are coming off a deflating midweek draw against Sporting CP in which Harry Kane tweeted after the match, "I don't really know what to say to be honest I'm just absolutely gutted it ended like that and not with a win." Sure, maybe this can be considered a bounce-back spot, but the Antonio Conte style hasn't exactly been working of late and Bournemouth seem like a team who will sit back and wait to pounce when the time is right. Tottenham prefer to play off the counter, something that may not be available to them in this matchup, assuming the Cherries don't go all out. I think 'No' on both teams to score is wise, but as usual, I'll go under 2.5 goals with close enough odds in case it finishes 1-1.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Brentford
Under 2.5 goals -120 between Brentford and Wolverhampton
I wouldn't be surprised if Brentford went off in this spot and gave Wolves another 4-0 loss, but I don't think that happens again. Wolves didn't play terrible against Leicester, they just couldn't score and gave up goals incredibly easily. I think they'll show some life in this spot and Brentford haven't been dominant this season outside of a couple outliers. These teams are pretty close to each other in terms of talent with Ivan Toney being the difference up front, as Wolves can't figure out how to score. I think Brentford win to nil is in play, as is 'No' on both teams to score, but I'll again go under on 2.5 goals.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Arsenal and West Ham at Manchester United
Parlay: Arsenal moneyline to beat Nottingham Forest (-500) and Manchester United moneyline to beat West Ham (-145) = +102
I wasn't going to do a parlay and then something caught my eye. It's a true parlay because why not just take Manchester United to win by itself? That's a good question.
However, I want better than the -145 odds on them to beat West Ham. I've bet against them a lot in the past, but it seems like they're starting to gel and the presence of Casemiro in the midfield may be a reason for that. At home, I'll take them over a side that has been a tad off-and-on this season and have been starting Flynn Downes for lack of other options.
Taking Arsenal is pretty simple. They're home against Nottingham Forest. You could grab them to win to nil or simply take them moneyline in this parlay in case something dumb happens.
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EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 14
- Crystal Palace moneyline -105 to beat Southampton
- Under 2.5 goals -110 between Bournemouth and Tottenham
- Under 2.5 goals -120 between Brentford and Wolverhampton
- Parlay: Arsenal moneyline to beat Nottingham Forest (-500) and Manchester United moneyline to beat West Ham (-145) = +102
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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