This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Providing bets on a short week before possible rotations are revealed is tricky. It's often the third game in eight day when managers rotate their sides, so starting XIs could look a lot different than the expected ones in Gameweek 15.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners.
Record: 23-20. Up $408 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Everton
Everton race to three corners against Liverpool +225
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I want to bet the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park and I like a few different things. However, I don't want to put that many eggs in the Everton basket. At Goodison, the Toffees have only lost one of the last eight derbies, which says it all. The players get up for this match and in the final one in this stadium, it's hard to think they won't come out with adrenaline flowing.
I think Everton double chance at +185 is great odds and probably my second favorite bet. I also like under 2.5 goals at +125. If you want to move that number to 3.5 and like Everton double chance, that's a reasonable single-game parlay.
However, it's a must that I take corner races when the odds are favorable. I hit Newcastle at +175 in a race to five corners last match against Liverpool and I'm taking a similar route with Everton. Five corners seems like a lot for Everton at +340, so I'm doing a race to three corners at +225 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Crystal Palace
SGP: Man City double chance + Under 3.5 goals + Palace over 2.5 corners +155
Premier League SGPs are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
My initial plan was to take Crystal Palace corners, but at -135 for over 3.5, the number is a bit rich. Instead, I'm left with a ridiculous single-game parlay.
I don't think City are completely back to normal just yet and considering Palace have been playing at a different level the last few matches, this should be an intriguing contest. I expect Palace's defensive cohesion to cause problems and in turn, I think they can go on the counter frequently against a beat up back line that continues to play behind Ilkay Gundogan. City's recent defensive injuries worry me a bit in taking under 2.5 goals (+120), as well.
You don't have to add City double chance, but I don't think they're going to lose in this spot. Throw in under 3.5 goals and Palace over 2.5 corners and you get plus odds. This is a weird bet and probably doesn't make sense together, but it's a couple things I already like combined to get better odds.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Brentford
Brentford race to three corners against Newcastle -105
It's in my contract that I have to bet on Thomas Frank and Brentford coming off a loss, especially at home. I don't particularly like this matchup against Newcastle, but Frank is the best bounce-back manager in the business. While I think they could have more problems defensively, it's a good spot to target corners.
Newcastle haven't accrued corners at a consistent rate this season and despite betting on them against Liverpool, I think the Bees come out pressing early en route to a few corners. I think this could end up being fairly back and forth like most Brentford matches this season and both sides could accrue more than five corners.
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EPL Best Bets for Arsenal at Fulham
SGP: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals +110
I don't like taking overs in Arsenal games because they have the best defense in the league, but Marco Silva's Fulham teams have caused them problems in the past, scoring two goals in each contest last season.
Fulham have scored in all but one match this season (opening match at Manchester United) and on a short week, I think they can find a way past a tired, somewhat beat up Arsenal back line. The Gunners are cruising with Martin Odegaard in the lineup and I'd be surprised if they were held to less than two goals.
Fulham aren't a team to sit back and defend, which usually leads to exciting matches against top clubs, assuming Arsenal don't completely close them off. That being the case, take the over and both teams to score while ignoring a side.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 15
- Everton race to 3 corners against Liverpool +225
- SGP: Man City double chance + Under 3.5 goals + Palace over 2.5 corners +155
- Brentford race to 3 corners against Newcastle -105
- SGP: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Fulham +110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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