This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Liverpool are still atop the table, but a couple draws and down performances have other teams thinking they have a chance. With a busy schedule ahead, this could be a turning point in the season for a lot of clubs, especially the ones playing in Europe with back-to-back midweeks making things worse.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 30-35. Down $354 on $100 bets.
Premier League Best Bets for Liverpool at Brentford
SGP: Liverpool double chance + over 2.5 goals + both teams to score -120
Brentford are more likely to hunker down against top clubs away from home. They're at home for this one. While they gave up the first two goals against Manchester City midweek, they still got a ton of chances and finished with 18 shots.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have been kind of nervy defensively since their hot start. They're still getting results, but I personally think there might be a riff within the squad due to contract situations. There are plenty of perks to having Trent Alexander-Arnold, but I can also see Yoane Wissa darting past him numerous times to set up chances, or even Keane Lewis-Potter when he gets forward.
I had to work up a three-leg parlay to find value since all signs point to goal between these teams. I'll ride the goals with a double chance on Liverpool.
Premier League Best Bets for Crystal Palace at West Ham United
Under 2.5 goals between West Ham and Palace +105
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I took under 2.5 goals in West Ham's last match and it blew up in my face. The worst part is that two of West Ham's goals in a 3-2 win came from dreadful defensive mistakes, while both of Fulham's goals were from outside the box.
Fulham were on the front foot for the majority of that match despite the loss, which is something I don't think Crystal Palace will do. Palace were bad last game against Leicester City despite the win and I think this will be two teams trying to figure things out for 90 minutes.
West Ham maybe have a bit of overconfidence from their win, while Palace haven't really played a solid 90 minutes in recent matches. Even the 1-0 win against Stockport County in the FA Cup wasn't pretty. I'm taking another chance on Graham Potter's squad, hoping the defense can show up and keep things tame.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Arsenal
Arsenal under 6.5 corners -115
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I've bet Arsenal under corners the last couple games against Aston Villa and I'm not stopping now with Bukayo Saka out. I know they had 10 corners against Tottenham midweek, but Villa are a different opponent and routinely one of the best at limiting corners. In their last three meetings, the Gunners have just eight total corners.
I expect Villa to muddy this game up like they've done in the past year against teams like Arsenal and Man City that possess the ball a ton.
There are other ways to take this if you want more money. Villa are +300 to have more corners for the match and +450 in the race to five corners. I'd rather take +270 on race to three because getting five corners at the Emirates isn't easy for anyone.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham Hotspur at Everton
Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Spurs +115
What are we doing here? The odds seem to be inflated because of Tottenham's overall season numbers, but all of their recent matches have been a little more contained. If you can get plus odds on under 2.5 goals in an Everton match you have to take it.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Ipswich Town
SGP: Under 3.5 goals + Man City double chance +100
I'm still not there on Manchester City being back. While I incorrectly bet Brentford to score first in the midweek game, I still had the right idea. It's my fault that I'm an idiot when I could've taken Brentford double chance at better than even odds.
Similar to City's game at Leicester City a few weeks ago, I don't think they completely break open the gates in this match. Brentford play a little more open and that led to more opportunities and a 2-2 result, but I don't think Ipswich will get in those situations. They've been using three center-backs and that's led to mostly lower-scoring matches, the PK fest against Fulham excluded.
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Premier League Betting Picks Gameweek 22
- SGP: Liverpool double chance + over 2.5 goals + both teams to score -120
- Under 2.5 goals between West Ham and Palace +105
- Arsenal under 6.5 corners -115
- Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Spurs +115
- SGP: Under 3.5 goals + Man City double chance +100
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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