Premier League Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Gameweek 9

This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.

Sometimes betting will piss you off. Often it happens when you think you bet a game correctly and something dumb happens. Nottingham Forest's lucky goal against Crystal Palace pissed me off Monday. Instead of avoiding them for the next month, I'm looking at Gameweek 9's opener for their trip to Leicester City. Either I'm an idiot or I'm hoping Forest won't do me like that again.

Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners. He provides four corners bets this week.

Record: 12-10. Up $290 on $100 bets.

EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Leicester City

SGP: Under 3.5 goals + under 5.5 corners 1st Half between Leicester and Forest +100

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Leicester City are coming off back-to-back wins despite not really being that impressive in either contest. That makes Friday's match under the lights a little harder to bet, but at King Power Stadium they at least know how to defend for their lives. They only allowed one goal to Tottenham in the opener and last time at home held Bournemouth scoreless despite allowing 2.16 xG.

I think under 2.5 goals is a decent play, but at -130 odds, I don't think it's worth it. This feels like a 1-0 or 1-1 match, but I'd like better odds for the under. Instead, I'm on a weird single-game parlay that no one else in the world is doing.

I'm moving the under to 3.5 goals and taking under 5.5 corners in the first half. I like Forest if you want a straight corners bet, either on a race to five or the asian spread. However, I think minimal corners in the first half is more likely. Neither one of these teams likes to press, which means the first 30 or so minutes of the match will be fairly dead. If you don't like the SGP, just take under 4.5 corners in the first half.

EPL Best Bets for Ipswich Town at Brentford

SGP: Brentford to win + Brentford over 1.5 goals against Ipswich Town -105

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Brentford at home coming off a loss is usually reason enough to bet them. Even better, Ipswich Town are one of the worst teams in the league and have a ton of injuries on their back line. They're down to their third-string right-back and backup center-back, which resulted in numerous errors against Everton last week.

Ipswich have shown life here and there, especially in their string of draws, but playing Championship-level defenders on the road in the Premier League usually doesn't result in success.

Since Brentford are -145 to win, I'm throwing in over 1.5 goals to get -105 odds. You can add a few more things to make it more enticing, but I'll stick with the close to even odds bet.

Brentford also posted this video from Thomas Frank earlier in the week.

EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Everton

SGP: Everton double chance against Fulham + both teams over 3.5 corners +175

If you only look at recent results between these teams, you'd jump on under 2.5 goals at -110. That's hit five of the last six times these teams have played, including two scoreless draws. However, I'm a bit tentative on that since my initial feeling was that this would be an open game between two teams that can't control a match.

Looking deeper at last season's results, the scoreless draw had a combined 3.78 xG, while Fulham's 1-0 win at Everton totaled 4.23 xG. Maybe crazier is that both teams combined for 20-plus shots in the scoreless draw, which probably never happens.

Still, I'd argue Raul Jimenez is in maybe his best form in five years and while Everton are scoring in bunches, they're scoring in most games. I think over 2.5 at -115 and both teams to score at -155 is intriguing, but those recent results still scare me even If I debunked them.

The absence of Joachim Andersen and Sasa Lukic combined with the return of Jarrad Branthwaite gives the edge to Everton. That leads me to a double chance on the home team with corners to both sides in what will be an open match.

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EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Arsenal

Under 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Liverpool -110

"Believe me on Sunday, we will be flying."

Even if you believe Mikel Arteta's quote above, does it matter when betting this match? Arsenal haven't looked like an elite team against top opposition (or most opposition) this season, so how are they going to fly against a defensive Liverpool side?

It feels very public to bet under 2.5 goals, but I'm not sure either manager wants this match to go off the rails. Liverpool were in Leipzig on Wednesday (a 1-0 win), while Arsenal gave a ho-hum performance at home against Shakhtar Donetsk. 

While 2-1 feels in play, I'm not comfortable taking double chance on either side, so it'll have to be a straight under 2.5 bet. I slightly lean on Liverpool because they're healthier, though at the Emirates, I'm not overly confident. The Gunners will already have to replace William Saliba and Riccardo Calafiori in their XI, and if Bukayo Saka isn't ready to return, their attack will again be lackluster.

The hope is that Liverpool don't find numerous holes against the Arsenal backline and open the match up early.

EPL Betting Picks Matchday 9

• SGP: Under 3.5 goals + under 5.5 corners 1st Half between Leicester and Forest +100
• SGP: Brentford to win + Brentford over 1.5 goals against Ipswich Town -105
• SGP: Everton double chance against Fulham + both teams over 3.5 corners +175
• Under 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Liverpool -110

Adam's Betting History (for this article)

2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.

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