This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Yes, there are more Premier League matches this weekend. One week ago, there were a ton of goals and matches were averaging more than three per contest in back-to-back gameweeks. Since, there's been just three matches (out of 19) with more than two goals scored. Does it mean anything? Probably not.
I made some stupid bets midweek, but luckily I don't have a ton of time to dwell on them.
Kits & Wagers yet again looked at another Manchester United match as they travel to Chelsea, in addition to two others. If you want more bets, Adam is 22-11 on the show.
Record: 27-15-1. Up $1,172 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Manchester City and Liverpool at Nottingham Forest
Parlay: Over 2.5 goals (-215) between Man City and Brighton with Under 3.5 goals (-155) between Forest and Liverpool = +141
Premier League parlays and over/under bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
I'm probably pushing for a parlay with this, but I like the idea and will give it out as a pick. Man City are back after no midweek match and facing a Brighton team struggling to find success under Roberto De Zerbi. They like to possess the ball and play out of the back and De Zerbi already said his team wouldn't stop attacking. Similar to that Liverpool match in his Brighton debut, I think there will be goals from both sides in this matchup. You can get 'Yes' on both teams to score at -105 or go heavy with over 5.5 goals at +650, but I'll play it safe for the parlay with over 2.5 goals.
Nottingham Forest have been playing slightly better defensively and combined with a Liverpool side that isn't continuously finding the back of the net, I think under 3.5 at -155 is pretty safe. Forest are always in play to be held scoreless and the only way this doesn't hit would be if Liverpool really get going. However, their lack of forward depth is concerning, especially with Champions League back next week.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton +130 to beat Leicester City
I was on Wolves in their last home match and I'm taking that route again versus Leicester City. I don't believe in either of these sides, but Wolves signed caretaker manager Steve Davis until the end of the year, so someone likes what he's done the last couple weeks. Leicester didn't look great Thursday, but they found a way, something I don't think will happen away from home. Wolves are always in play not to score, so taking under 2.5 at -110 or 'No' on both teams to score at +120 is also an option if you don't think they can win.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Leeds United
Leeds United +105 to beat Fulham
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This is probably the easiest matchup Leeds have had this season, as it's their first against one of the newly-promoted clubs and it's at Elland Road. While they're struggling for points, it wasn't that long ago that they beat Chelsea 3-0. Since that win, they've drawn Everton and Aston Villa at home before losing to Arsenal last weekend. This is a perfect spot for another home win, as Fulham are coming off a great home performance midweek and a letdown seems inevitable for what has been a shaky back line. The public will likely be on Fulham in some kind of bet, but the number hasn't moved much from Thursday to Friday (from +100 to +105), so there's still plenty of Leeds money coming in.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Tottenham
Under 2.5 goals -105 between Tottenham and Newcastle
There's been 15 goals scored in the last three meetings between these sides with Tottenham winning this fixture 5-1 last April. It's hard to see Howe taking that same approach in this matchup, as Tottenham thrive off the counter. While Newcastle love to push, I think they'll play it a little safer in this one, one of the reasons I took the under in their trip to Manchester United a week ago. Their cohesion and strength in the midfield is a big reason they're preventing opponents from getting chances and Tottenham are already a team that doesn't play to dominate matches.
There's a chance Newcastle go all out and go for goals early, which would open up their back, but given that prior result, it seems like a bad strategy. The public hates betting unders and there's a chance this number gets better leading up to match time.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 13
- Parlay: Over 2.5 goals (-215) between Man City and Brighton with Under 3.5 goals (-155) between Forest and Liverpool = +141
- Wolverhampton +130 to beat Leicester City
- Leeds United +105 to beat Fulham
- Under 2.5 goals -105 between Tottenham and Newcastle
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
