This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The holidays are over which means I have less time to stuff my face with cookies and alcohol, and more time to watch and analyze Premier League football. I'm hoping that'll lead to a return of winning bets, as I've only gone about .500 the last couple weeks. It's hard to watch holiday movies and give out free, winning bets at the same time!
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris discuss a couple derbies and one relegation battle on their betting show.
Record: 41-29-1. Up $1,396 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Brighton
Brighton or Draw and over 2.5 goals against Liverpool +140
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It's disrespectful that Liverpool are favorites in this matchup. The odds are simply built on name only because if you take into account form, injuries and how they have played all season, Brighton would probably be favored. Liverpool have four losses and a negative two goal differential in eight away matches. They're without Virgil van Dijk, might be missing Darwin Nunez, and while Cody Gakpo is an exciting addition, that doesn't change how inconsistent they've been defensively all season.
This matchup was 3-3 in early October at Anfield, also Roberto De Zerbi's debut as Brighton manager. Brighton have taken points in four of the last five meetings between them. I might make a bigger bet on Brighton double chance at -140 and I hate taking draw no bet (+135) because a push is possible with a draw.
Diving into the DraftKings formulated "Game Parlays," you can find Brighton or Tie and over 1.5 goals at -135 or over 2.5 goals at +140 (it was +160 earlier in week). I think Brighton can win this match at +220, but if you want to be safer, there are a few routes to go.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Everton
Everton most corners in first half against Southampton -110
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I'm not entirely sure what to make of Southampton under new manager Nathan Jones and that usually means you shouldn't bet on their matches, but I'm trying one more time to bet corners in their match. This bet is more based off Everton being desperate and in need to push for goals early. Sitting only three points above last place Southampton, the Toffees need three points in this home match.
I think Everton will come out swinging, not too dissimilar to the Brighton match when they had three shots on target and five corners in the first half. Of course, they allowed an early goal and couldn't get one themselves, but that was also a harder matchup. I'll take Everton most corners in the first half at -110 in what should be an even contest.
Of note, I wrote all of this before Southampton beat Manchester City on Wednesday.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Brentford
Brentford -1 against Bournemouth +110
I think this is smash potential for Brentford even with Ivan Toney still a doubt. They've looked better and more consistent out of the break and outside of Toney, they're fairly healthy with Christian Norgaard back in the squad and Kristoffer Ajer returning in last week's Cup match.
As for Bournemouth, it seems like Marcus Tavernier won't be back and defender Adam Smith, who has started every league match this season, will be suspended. However, because I think a 3-1 result is just as likely as 1-0, I don't want to play games with betting the total. That leads me to Brentford -1 at +110. Unfortunately, this means a push is in play, but I can't find anything else I like and I definitely think a multi-goal win his possible for Thomas Frank's side.
EPL Best Bets for Leeds United at Aston Villa and West Ham at Wolverhampton
Parlay: Aston Villa double chance against Leeds United -400 and Wolves double chance against West Ham -225 = -125
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I wasn't going to do a parlay, but I'm a man of the people. While I don't trust Villa or Wolves, they're both at home and I thought it'd be fun to bet on two of the newer managers.
Villa blew last week's FA Cup match against Stevenage and I think they'd like to bounce back. If not, what's the purpose of Unai Emery? Leeds have been pretty bad away from home all season and it'd be a shock if they stole three points.
Wolves have at least shown a bit of spark under Julen Lopetegui and this is only his second match at home following a Dec. 31 loss against Man United. I don't have a ton of faith in West Ham away and that's another reason I'll side with Wolves.
There's not much more to say. This is a parlay for the people and a bet on new managers.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 20
- Brighton or Draw and over 2.5 goals against Liverpool +140
- Everton most corners in first half against Southampton -110
- Brentford -1 against Bournemouth +110
- Parlay: Aston Villa double chance against Leeds United -400 and Wolves double chance against West Ham -225 = -125
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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