This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Soccer series.
The semifinals of the World Cup are here and kick off Tuesday with Argentina vs. Croatia. Storylines abound with Lionel Messi looking for a World Cup title in what is likely his last run at the trophy, while Croatia look to go back-to-back as finalists. Argentina are heavy favorites with nearly a 52 percent chance to win, and 42 percent implied clean sheet chances. Still, the implied goals total in the match is relatively low at just 2.34, with Argentina sitting at 1.46 and Croatia at 0.88. Even as heavy underdogs this wouldn't be the first time Croatia have created a shock in the 2022 World Cup, or in a World Cup semifinal.
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CASH GAME STRATEGY
In cash games, it's hard to start anywhere other than Lionel Messi ($34), the most expensive player on the slate by a huge margin, and deservedly so. Messi has an incredible floor and a hold on a major share of Argentina's set pieces, while also being the team's best finisher and provider. Angel Di Maria ($19) and Julian Alvarez ($21) are the pivots from Messi on the Argentine side but in all reality, they aren't in the same class as the magician. Ivan Perisic is the highest-salaried player for Croatia and for similar, though less impressive, reasons than Messi and with substantially worse goal-scoring odds at +500 compared to Messi's +130.
Luka Modric ($23) is an interesting one. This man is the heart and soul of the Croatian team, and has an absolute stranglehold on set pieces. He has actually taken more set pieces than Messi coming into this match, and could be a strong cash play in nearly all formats. The odds have shifted away from Argentina before this match, because on the whole Croatia are probably the better team. Modric's salary doesn't reflect that shift and he comes in at a substantial discount despite his major role on set pieces. Marcelo Brozovic ($24) is slightly higher priced than Modric and is hard to justify in cash games.
Moving down towards the mid-range of salaries Josip Juranovic ($18) and Josko Gvardiol ($16) both stand out. Argentina love to take defenders on and could give the two main Croatian defenders a chance to absolutely pile on the clearances, interceptions, and tackles. Borna Sosa ($14) is one player I'm particularly interested in at a discount compared to the rest of the Croatian defense, despite generally getting forward well and looking for assists. On the Argentine side, Nicolas Tagliafico ($14) is worth mentioning as he steps into the starting XI for the suspended Marcos Acuna, though he is generally a defensively-minded fullback at this point in his career.
The goalkeepers here are interesting, to say the least. Dominik Livakovic ($20) had an all-time great showing against Brazil and his price shows that off. It's hard to trust the Croatian goalkeeper to repeat that incredible showing, before that quarterfinal he had made nine saves in four matches behind a stingy Croatian defense. Obviously, the 11-save heroics are impressive but Argentina aren't Brazil and likely won't pile on 21 shots. Emiliano Martinez is hard to trust in his own right as across the five matches in the World Cup he has faced sevens shots and stopped just two. He stepped up big time in the shootout against Netherlands but in open play, he has not been good and he likely won't see any major volume. Martinez has stronger clean sheet chances and is at a lower price, so he has some appeal, but don't expect a deluge of saves from either goalkeeper.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
Tournaments are particularly interesting here, obviously fading Messi is a quick way to get away from the crowd, but Messi has made a habit of punishing those who fade him at this World Cup. The entirety of the Argentina attack will be popular and it's not surprising with Messi (+130), Julian Alvarez (+240) and Angel Di Maria (+400) holding the top three goal-scoring odds on the slate. On the Croatian side, Andrej Kramaric ($19) has the best goal-scoring odds at +400, though he has absolutely no floor. One construction to consider would be a goalless draw going to penalties in what has been a defensive knockout stage. Both goalkeepers could see interest in the Superstar (1.6x) slot in that construction, alongside Juranovic and Sosa, who both would have appeal in a scoreless draw, or a low-scoring Croatian win on a goal that would likely come from a wide player.
