This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
It will be the men's turn Friday to take the court at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City for the semifinals of the U.S. Open. An all-American matchup will produce a Grand Slam finalist, but can anybody slow down top seed and clear title favorite Jannik Sinner?
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
U.S. Open Odds: Fritz vs. Tiafoe
Taylor Fritz (-300) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+225)
Tiafoe's a terrific value as a substantial underdog in a match that's likely to come down to the wire. Both big-serving Americans have the opportunity of a lifetime, and the first all-American U.S Open men's singles semifinal since Andre Agassi defeated Robby Ginepri in 2005 will be just as much about which of Fritz and Tiafoe handles the moment better as it will about any X's and O's in their game styles. Fritz has managed his serve beautifully, getting broken only three times across his last four matches, with two of those coming in his 7-6 (2), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3) quarterfinal upset over No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev. The 12th-seeded American benefited from unwavering crowd support in that match, but Fritz probably won't have that against his 20th-seeded compatriot, as Tiafoe is a more natural showman with a highly energetic demeanor, while Fritz tends to be a bit more reserved on the court outside of the biggest moments. Despite being ranked lower, Tiafoe's also more well known to casual fans thanks to his semifinal run here two years ago, while this is Fritz's first foray into a major semifinal.
Tiafoe is playing the best tennis of his career under new coach David Witt, as he reached his first Masters 1000 final in Cincinnati (losing to Sinner) in his previous tournament and is now in his second career Grand Slam semifinal, having accrued a 10-1 record across these two tournaments. Fritz has a decisive 6-1 career head-to-head edge, including four wins since 2022 while Tiafoe's lone triumph came back in 2016, but Tiafoe's likely to make some strategic adjustments under Witt, and this atmosphere will be unlike anything these two have faced off in before. Tiafoe will need to serve well and can't afford to lose focus since one break is usually all it takes for Fritz to secure a set, but Fritz will be dealing with the added pressure of being the favorite here. The fans at Arthur Ashe Stadium are likely to get their money's worth, as this is much more likely to be a competitive five-setter than a one-sided rout.
U.S. Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Tiafoe def. Fritz 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
U.S. Open Odds: Sinner vs. Draper
Jannik Sinner (-575) vs. Jack Draper (+425)
Sinner's now a perfect 12-0 in hard-court Grand Slam matches in 2024, and 33-2 on hard courts overall this year. The most recent of those wins was a 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 quarterfinal victory over No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev, which was impressive considering Sinner didn't have anywhere near his A-game but still didn't have too much trouble against an opponent who has played in six hard-court Grand Slam finals. Sinner has been prone to slow starts in this tournament and isn't quite playing his best, so he may not steamroll Draper like the odds suggest, but it's tough to imagine the world No. 1 losing this match against an opponent who is playing in his first Grand Slam semifinal.
Draper has always had talent, and the 25th-seeded Brit is finally enjoying a healthy stretch long enough to live up to his potential. He hasn't dropped a set en route to the semis, though Draper has certainly benefited from a favorable draw, beating four unseeded opponents and then No. 10 seed Alex de Minaur, who was hindered by a leg injury. Draper also called the trainer during that match to tape up his hamstring, and it will be tough for him to hang with Sinner at anything less than 100 percent. Sinner will be the first player with enough power to consistently force Draper to cede the middle of the court in this tournament, and the 6-foot-3 Italian's lanky frame should help him consistently reach the off-speed lefty slice serves that have been earning Draper easy free points. Draper beat Sinner in two tiebreaks on the 22-year-old Brit's home soil in Queen's Club in 2021, but Sinner has taken his game up a few notches since then, and a hard-court Grand Slam semifinal has a distinctly different feel from a Wimbledon tune-up on grass.
U.S. Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Sinner def. Draper 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6
