The first round of the Australian Open continues Tuesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Monday night in the United States. A pair of Australian women will look to give the crowd something to cheer about while one of the game's brightest young stars on the men's side sees his first Grand Slam action of 2026.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Laura Siegemund (+289) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Siegemund was a tough out at Grand Slams in 2025, reaching the third round or better at three of the four majors, including a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. The crafty German notched a pair of top-10 wins in majors in 2025, so she won't be intimidated in this matchup with the 18th-seeded Samsonova, who heads into this tournament on a two-match losing streak. The big-hitting Samsonova is a perennial Grand Slam underperformer, with just a 29-22 career record in majors, and she hasn't been past the second round of the Australian Open in six previous tries.
Maya Joint (+193) vs. Tereza Valentova
The crowd could play a key factor in this battle between teenagers, who may both be a bit more susceptible to influence from the outside environment compared to older WTA veterans. This is basically a home game for the 19-year-old Australian Joint, who snagged the No. 30 seed here and is ranked No. 31. Valentova is ranked 23 spots behind Joint at No. 54 and is making only her second Grand Slam main draw appearance. The 18-year-old Czech is favored after finishing 2025 on a high note with a run to a WTA 250 final in Osaka, but Joint won two WTA 250 events in 2025 and offers great value as the underdog, especially given the venue.
Honorable Mention
Rei Sakamoto (+201) vs. Rafael Jodar
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Joao Fonseca (-192) vs. Eliot Spizzirri
Fonseca's probably the most talked-about player on the ATP Tour outside of Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, as the 19-year-old Brazilian brings a natural showmanship and charisma to the court along with his electrifying game style. He has been bothered by a back injury leading up to the Australian Open, but Fonseca has been practicing regularly, suggesting that his absences in the leadup tournaments were precautionary. Tennis fans are hoping the No. 28 seed makes it to a potential third-round clash with Sinner, and Fonseca shouldn't have too much trouble clearing his first hurdle in Spizzirri, who has never been ranked higher than his current spot of No. 85 at age 24. The substantial talent gap here should allow Fonseca to shake off any rust if needed. This will be the American Spizzirri's first Grand Slam main-draw match outside of the U.S. Open.
Daria Kasatkina (-249) vs. Nikola Bartunkova
Kasatkina has dipped to 43rd in the rankings after being a top-20 staple for years, but she was a consistent Grand Slam performer in 2025, reaching at least the third round in all four majors. Having changed allegiances from Russian to Australian in recent years, she should benefit from increased crowd support in addition to her massive edge in big-match experience against the 19-year-old qualifier Bartunkova. The Czech teenager is ranked 126th and will be playing her first Grand Slam main draw match.
Honorable Mention
Naomi Osaka (-421) vs. Antonia Ruzic
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Sebastian Baez (+141) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
This David vs. Goliath matchup between the 6-foot-7 Mpetshi Perricard and the generously 5-foot-7 Baez might just go the same way as the battle in the Book of Samuel. Mpetshi Perricard has the far superior serve, but Baez has gotten plenty of practice reading big servers heading into this tournament, as the diminutive Argentine has notched top-10 wins over big-serving Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton in what has been a superb 7-1 start to 2026 for Baez. Mpetshi Perricard doesn't have nearly as good of a ground game as Frtiz or Shelton to back up his serve, which is why the Frenchman is ranked 25 spots behind Baez at No. 61. Given Baez's form leading up to this tournament, he should be favored outright in this match against Mpetshi Perricard, who has yet to notch a hard-court Grand Slam main-draw win in his career (0-3).
Ben Shelton (-167) vs. Ugo Humbert
Prior to retiring due to injury during the U.S. Open, Shelton didn't lose to a player other than Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz at a Grand Slam in 2025. The eighth-seeded American has regained health and should be comfortably favored against the 33rd-ranked Humbert, who plays his best tennis indoors. Humbert has been ranked as high as 13th, but the Frenchman has been mediocre in outdoor Grand Slam conditions, with a 21-28 career Grand Slam main draw record and no quarterfinal appearances. Shelton has reached at least the quarterfinals in two of his previous three appearances at the Australian Open alone and hasn't lost prior to the third round of a major since Wimbledon in 2023. This will be the first head-to-head meeting between these two lefties.
Honorable Mention
Jelena Ostapenko (-111) vs. Rebecca Sramkova
