2023 AL and NL Cy Young Race, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

2023 AL and NL Cy Young Race, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Futures: AL Cy Young and NL Cy Young Picks

The MLB 2023 season starts Thursday, March 30, and there is a plethora of betting opportunities available for baseball bettors. The Cy Young award is given to the best pitcher in the National and American leagues and will be hotly contested this season. I have used my 28 years of experience and database applications to cut through the top 25 pitchers being offered at the major sportsbooks. 

Stay up to date on the AL Cy Young odds and NL Cy Young odds all season here at RotoWire. If you're looking for a sportsbook to bet MLB with this season, try BetMGM using the BetMGM bonus code, which activates a $1,000 first bet offer.

MLB Rule Changes and Impacts

The pitch clock will be a revolutionary change to the traditions of MLB with the ultimate goal to shorten the length of the game and add more drama and continuous action for fans to enjoy. So, for the first time in more than 150 years, MLB games will be played with time constraints and penalties dished out to pitchers and batters for violating these new rules. 

Pitchers will be required to deliver a pitch within 15 seconds if no runners are on base and within 20 seconds with runners on base. A called ball will be granted to the hitter's count if the pitch clock expires. The batters have the responsibility to be facing the pitcher in the batter's box with no less than eight seconds remaining on the pitch clock. A hitter will be penalized with a strike added to his current count if the eight-second rule is violated.  The overall result of the new pitch clock in Spring training games has shortened the game times by about 30 minutes.

Relief pitchers, especially closers, will be impacted the most by the pitch clock as they generally have to take more time between pitches. Most closers are power hard-throwing pitchers and are brought into the game with a 1 or 2-run lead in the ninth inning. They throw with maximum physical effort and require a few extra seconds to recover and re-focus after every pitch. So, they will be the pitchers most impacted by the pitch clock. 

Be sure to check out Jeff Erickson's appearance on VSiN where he explains how the new rule changes will alter betting strategies this season.

Who Are the American League Cy Young Favorites?

We provide an excellent resource displaying all American League pitchers and their odds to win the Cy Young award. Currently, the Texas Rangers' Jacob deGrom is the favorite at +550, which implies a 9.3% probability of winning the award. There is minimal betting value in betting on DeGrom now, but these odds will change significantly over the course of the season and offer more attractive opportunities for bettors, who want to bet on him to win the award.

Sign up at FanDuel using the FanDuel promo code to get in on the action this MLB season and qualify for a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet upon registration.

AL Cy Young Odds

AL Cy Young Best Bet

 Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (+2100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

I have bet the Astros Cristian Javier at +2100 as offered by FanDuel to win the AL Cy Young award. Entering the season, the reigning World Champion Astros are the best team in MLB led by their modern edition of Murderer's Row lineup. The Astro's offense is loaded with power, finesse, and speed that will put many runs on the scoreboard providing immense run support for their starting pitchers. There is no greater advantage for a starting pitcher to have than run support.

Javier hails from the Dominican Republic, is 26 years old, and made his MLB debut on July 25, 2020. He has earned a 20-12 record, with a 3.05 ERA spanning 78 appearances including 44 starts in his first three years of service. He is a traditional fastball and slider pitcher, but has exceptional late-breaking and explosive ball movement. His four-seam fastball averages 94 MPH and hitters batted just .183 on this pitch. He decreased the rate of hard-hit balls as defined by Statcast from 43% in the 2021 season to a quite impressive 33% in the 2022 season. He also has added a monster knuckle curve to his pitch arsenal and overall he is only going to get better.

The biggest advantage for him is he will be matched up against opponents' No.2 or 3 starter and not their ace. The Astros have tagged Framber Valdez as their ace, who posted a 17-6 record with a 2.82 ERA including 194 strikeouts in 201.1 innings of work in 2022. Javier will have the best offense behind him and will not have to face opponent aces this season and I like him to emerge as a contender to take home the Cy Young hardware this season.

Who are the National League Cy Young Favorites?

We provide an excellent resource displaying all National League pitchers and their odds to win the Cy Young award. Currently, the Miami Marlins ace, Sandy Alcantara, is the favorite at +500 odds or about a 12% probability to win the NL Cy Young award this season. The race is filled with worthy contenders and the DraftKings odds board has six pitchers at +1000 odds or lower.

Check out DraftKings this MLB season and get in on the action when you sign up using the DraftKings promo code for $150 in bonus bets. If you're in Massachusetts or Ohio -- both of which have launched sports betting this year -- make use of the DraftKings Massachusetts Promo Code or DraftKings Ohio Promo Code for special offers.

NL Cy Young Odds

NL Cy Young Best Bet

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+1300 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

My best bet to win the NL Cy Young hardware is on the Phillies' Aaron Nola at +1200 odds at DraftKings. He was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 22nd round of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, LA. In 2022, he posted a hard-luck 11-13 record with a 3.25 ERA including 235 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. He led the league with an outstanding 8.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio reflecting his excellent command of all pitches. 

He had far more unlucky situations work against him as reflected by a 2.58 fielding independent pitching (FIP) metric marking one of the widest in MLB last season. So, he pitched far better baseball than his losing record indicates. I see his ERA to FIP ratio significantly lower this season and that will translate to many more wins than losses, making him my best bet to win the NL Cy Young award.

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John Ryan
John Ryan has been handicapping professional sports for over 28 years. He has either won or placed in the Top-10 in dozens of contests. John's success begins with the philosophy that profits are earned and measured over the long-term and not just one lucky weekend. He has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and when hosting he always ends them with "Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours." Every client is informed that there are no guarantees for profit or that any past performances can be counted on for future profitable results. He provides full disclosure that gambling can be dangerous, but can be a lot of fun if done in a very disciplined manner. For more than 30 years John has develoepd adn deployed many advanced analytical, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. Jumuman subjectivity from these applications is minimized and proftit potential optimized. The foundation systems are based on combinatorial algorithms and an adaptive-structure Neural Network. In summary, his systems calculate and analyze several million pieces of game data and then optimizes the data to produce the best possible forecasts. The systems also optimize team streaks and momentum metrics much like their technical use in the analysis of a stocks, futures, or even bitcoin. As seen in the financial markets for decades and personally learned from a vast investment banking career on Wall Street, John applies a contrarian weighting to the betting markets consensus. For example, if a given trend in any sport is posting a 15-2 ATS, then the model may project that the trend has topped and is more likely to reverse. JRS is a cutting-edge technology company whose sports information is unique, and informative, and has produced strong predictive anmd consistent results. The key is committing to a full season or a 6 to 12-month horizon. If you make that decision to do that and invest in yourself, you will not be disappointed. After all, he has been around for 28 years with a proven track record of success and treating clients with the respect and full transparency. To be one of the best in anything it takes hard work week after week and John provides this with no hype and just facts that you trust.
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