This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Futures Wednesday
Family, what's goodie? This Future Wednesday series continues after a preview on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to make the CWS (15/1) last week. I've decided to do something a bit different here this week, but as always, I will be providing you with some strong value. Let's get it cooking in this piece.
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College World Series Winners Update
Texas A&M Aggies +2500 (MGM)
Well, well, well. Welcome back, my old friends. The love hate relationship with these Aggies has been real this year. After starting SEC play at 1-9, TAMU has skyrocketed like Microsoft in the 80's these last few weeks, taking series at #1 Tennessee and at #2 Arkansas with a sweep of South Carolina in the middle. One of my preseason cornerstone bets was drawing dead about three weeks, but now the game has changed.
Virtually nothing was working in the first six weeks of the season outside a strong starting rotation with Ryan Prager, Justin Lamkin, and Myles Patton. The bullpen was a complete and utter disaster. The offense was so anemic that it made James Harden's performance in the 2012 NBA Finals when the Thunder went against the Miami Heat look like Michael Jordan. Even the preseason 1.1 pick, Jace Laviolette, was a near-zero. NOTHING was working, which ultimately tanked the confidence level of this team that was expected to be a shoo-in for a berth in Omaha in the preseason.
During that time, I tried to remain positive, citing multiple examples of teams that were a complete disaster in the first half of the season that barely made the NCAA Tournament thanks to hot second halves. 2022 Ole Miss was one of the last teams in and ended up winning it all. 2023 Tennessee was awful until a mid-season series win against Vandy propelled them to Omaha. 2024 Florida was the last team in and ended up as a final-four team in the CWS. The precedent gave me at least an illusion of hope. In between, obviously, were a lot of frustrated tweets I had about how pathetic and gutless the team was. And I stand by that.
If the Aggies end up making that deep run, we need to circle that series at Tennessee as the "ah-ha" moment where it all came together after they got no-hit and run-ruled in that Friday night game. Since that game, A&M has won nine of its last 10 contests and has taken on the persona so many people expected them to have. At 8-10 in SEC play, nothing is guaranteed as 13 conference wins for an SEC team is usually the "automatic" bid threshold, but the way they're humming, it should concern every other team.
The rest of the way has some challenges with a series this weekend at Texas in the revenge spot against Jim Schlossnagle, home to LSU, home Mizzou, and at UGA. If they keep playing the way they have been, they can beat anybody.
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What made me relatively optimistic is something I've talked about a lot during the struggles. Once Caden Sorrell comes back, things will change. He was going to be the important bridge between the middle and bottom of the lineup, while providing crazy production and clutch hitting. Since his return, all he's done is rake (.346 avg, 5 homers/1.220 OPS in 14 games). That's provided the spark for guys like Wyatt Henseler (.317/1.008 OPS/9 HR), Laviolette (.307 avg/1.161 OPS/15 homers), Bear Harrison (.342 avg/1.251 OPS/8 HR) and others to get going.
The direct result is TAMU scoring 10.64 runs per game with him compared to 6.48 runs without him. And the truth is, their lineup isn't even firing on all cylinders yet, so when that happens, then things will really get interesting.
The rotation has been struggling a bit in recent weeks, but that will regress to the mean. The fact that they would be trotting out one of the top rotations in this kind of postseason format is extremely dangerous. As I told you last week, three legit weekend starters isn't just a luxury, but a huge advantage. Realistically, there's MAYBE eight teams in the country that possess this.
Bullpen-wise, it's still working, but Weston Moss has distinguished himself as the guy in the pen with his 1.70 ERA/.199 OBA. Other arms have been improving, which will be a necessity in June.
The price has gotten slashed hard in the last 10 days, coming down from 55/1 to about 20/1 on FanDuel. Bet Rivers even had a 100/1 floating around there. Universally, the Aggies are in the 20/1 range everywhere, except BetMGM, which is still hanging a 25/1. Now is the time to buy on this team because if they go down to Austin and beat Texas, they might be 12/1 come Monday.
Texas A&M has come alive, so it's time to take one last ride on them.
Pick: Aggies to win the CWS +2500 (MGM)
Golden Spikes Award Update
We took the 2024 Charlie Condon season for granted. I bet him early and often last season in the inaugural Golden Spikes market release and never looked back. While I didn't expect to see a Condon-like season from anybody in 2025, I thought there would be a few of the stars putting up big years at this point to start creating separation. But the crazy thing is, it's anybody's award this year.
We might see a trend-bucking year that forces my pre-requisites out the window like a power-four player, 1st-round grade, upper classmen, .400 ish average with close to 30 homers. So there are a lot of moving factors.
I still consider Gavin Kilen (a mid-season edition in this article series) a prime frontrunner, as well as Jared Jones from LSU. Both are less than 8/1. Justin Lebron is the favorite at +475, but has taken a nose dive these last few weeks after a scorching start. Lebron will be a consideration as the 1.1 pick in the 2026 draft and even though he is still in the mix, it's not a play at the number.
From Monday to Tuesday, the market shifted a lot. Jace LaViolette came down from 22/1 to 15/1, Aiva Arquette from 20/1 to 10/1, among others. With the current numbers on Caesars, there are only a few players I would consider taking at this point, so here we go.
Laviolette was somebody I considered before the weekend was over because his resurgence has brought him to 15 homers and a .307 average, which is still a long way to go to where he needs to be. However, if the Aggies end up making the deep run and he ends up logging close to 70 games, a 30-homer season is certainly in the cards if he continues to rake. The average may only need to be .350-.360 this season, making him a worthy stab. As the preseason projected top pick, he already has the narrative and pedigree as the star player of the most highly touted preseason team. Not to mention, if the Aggies make the run, he's going to get most of the credit as their centerpiece.
Mason Neville was an aggressive cut down from 45/1 to 28/1. I actually discussed him on a couple podcasts on Monday, including my own Breaking Bet. The Oregon star is rising on draft boards as he currently sits with the most taters in the country (19). His .338 average also has him in a prime position to settle in a high-regarded rank if he stays hot.
Carrying this top 25 Ducks team, Neville has a great chance at 30+ homers right now. The one issue is he plays for Oregon, so most people don't know about him. And because they play in the Big 10, not many are subscribed to the Big10+ network and they rarely get to see him play. Nevertheless, he is worth a shot, especially considering he should be 20/1 or less right now.
Those are the only two players I would be looking into right now. Although in this incredibly soft market, it's something I would watch aggressively with the second half of the year underway. There's a lot of time left, so somebody could begin to take charge.
