This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College World Series Predictions and Best Bets Today (June 17)
The Father's Day College World Series slate was a nice one. We got a couple W's, so let's see if we can get more here on this Monday card. It's another double dip today, but I'm going to keep it to one game.
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Texas A&M Aggies (-130) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (+100) | Total: 9.5
Well, I didn't expect either team to win their first game over the weekend, but here we are. It's the Bracket Two 1-0 matchup between two squads who have combined for 96 total wins in 2024. TAMU gambled in game one and it paid off. They elected to fire Justin Lamkin in Game 1 to save ace Ryan Prager, and with that win, they're now in prime position to go 2-0. Meanwhile, Kentucky is throwing Mason Moore, the definition of a mixed bag. Which one will show up?
Prager has legit been one of the 10 best starters in the country this year. He had a 2.53 ERA heading into the NCAA Tournament, and sits with an elite 114 K/19 BB ratio across 87 innings. This dude has been the rock for the Aggies staff, no doubt. Unfortunately, he's coming off a real bad outing against Oregon, one where he gave up seven hits and six runs in just 1.2 innings. So the real question is will Prager bounce back or just let that unravel him?
In all fairness, he is facing a Kentucky team that has polished LHP pitching this season. The Cats are batting .324 with a .991 OPS against Southpaws, compared to a .275 average and .870 OPS vs. RHP. The pinnacle of College Baseball pitchers, Hagen Smith the ultimate lefty, dotted six innings of one-run ball with 14 K/2 BB against Kentucky back on May 3rd. Like a lot of arms, the homer has been the plague for Prager this year with 12 allowed, and while UK isn't known for the long ball, they can still crank out one or two.
If Ryan Prager wants to be the guy, then this is the moment for him to prove why he's one of the games best pitchers. He hasn't had many blow up outings, but he's yet to stack two bad starts in a row (hopefully no jinx here). After getting ripped at Florida for six runs and seven hits in 2.1 innings, he came back the next week against Mississippi State for 6.1 no earned runs. After allowing four earned in three innings against Alabama, he came back the next time out for six innings two earned against Georgia. A win here would put TAMU in the driver's seat.
The mixed bag a.k.a. Mason Moore remains a bit of a mystery. He's had five quality starts and six outings with at least four earned in five or fewer innings this season. Against Oregon State in the Supers, he wasn't good despite allowing just one earned in 3.1 with no hits allowed. Moore walked six in that game, and because the Beavers are (or were) a worthless PAC-12 team, they couldn't capitalize. The 51 walks in in 87.2 innings could be the the undoing if the Aggies can come up with some timely hitting. Even without top five pick, Braden Montgomery, there still should be enough firepower with Gavin Grahovac and Jace Laviolette, two top 10 picks in the next couple drafts, to lead the charge for the Aggies' offense.
It's no secret I hate Kentucky. While I admire (and hate) their grit as a team, and how they play the game with minimum mistakes, there's not much overall talent on this team. They also chant and cheerlead like that annoying 10-year-old travel team that you want to punch in the face.
Last, but not least, the furry pink bucket hat is the dumbest of any team's dugout fashions. However, I believe in being objective in my analysis. The advantage in the starting pitching and bullpens go in favor of TAMU, as does the offense, on paper at least. And even though the Aggies were a tournament fade for me, I can't back off the Ryan Prager train as it has been extremely profitable all season long.
There have been two trends happening in the first six games to start the CWS; the home team has won every game, but so have the favorites. Now we're in a position where both away teams today are the favorites, so one of those has to give.
Pick: Texas A&M ML -130
