This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Happy Opening Week everyone! I doubt Jurickson Profar, Colton Cowser, Rafael Devers fantasy managers as well as fans of the Brewers and Twins are thrilled right now, but we do have real baseball back again. The White Sox are out here setting records again, but in a good way now as their starting pitchers have carved through the lineups sent out by first the Angels and then the Twins:
The latest effort in Chicago saw Martin Perez throw six no-hit innings against the winless Twins despite never throwing a single pitch 90.0 mph or greater. In fact, his average velocity was down two miles an hour over last year, but he generated 11 whiffs and 19 called strikes with his soft-tossing ways:
While many were distracted by the batting practice outcomes at Yankee Stadium over the weekend and the hullabaloo around the new-fangled torpedo bats, Perez's no-hit effort highlights what really has my attention so far: the lack of hits. I am writing this article as I watch Bowden Francis take a no-hitter into the sixth himself before CJ Abrams and James Wood ended that storyline with consecutive homers in the inning. And I'm wrapping the
Happy Opening Week everyone! I doubt Jurickson Profar, Colton Cowser, Rafael Devers fantasy managers as well as fans of the Brewers and Twins are thrilled right now, but we do have real baseball back again. The White Sox are out here setting records again, but in a good way now as their starting pitchers have carved through the lineups sent out by first the Angels and then the Twins:
The latest effort in Chicago saw Martin Perez throw six no-hit innings against the winless Twins despite never throwing a single pitch 90.0 mph or greater. In fact, his average velocity was down two miles an hour over last year, but he generated 11 whiffs and 19 called strikes with his soft-tossing ways:
While many were distracted by the batting practice outcomes at Yankee Stadium over the weekend and the hullabaloo around the new-fangled torpedo bats, Perez's no-hit effort highlights what really has my attention so far: the lack of hits. I am writing this article as I watch Bowden Francis take a no-hitter into the sixth himself before CJ Abrams and James Wood ended that storyline with consecutive homers in the inning. And I'm wrapping the article up as Jordan Hicks limits the Astros to one hit over the first five innings of that matchup tonight. No-hitter alerts should not be this regular, yet here we are.
As of writing, the count of games was nearly identical to this time last year. Opening Week of 2024 included two games in Korea and 67 total games between the 30 teams. This season, we opened with two games in Japan and 66 total games between the 30 clubs. That is where the similarities end:
STAT | Opening Week '24 | Opening Week '25 |
|---|---|---|
Games | 69 | 68 |
PA | 5,314 | 5,021 |
BA | .246 | .238 |
OBP | .323 | .318 |
SLG | .400 | .404 |
BABIP | .298 | .278 |
HR/Contact | 4.4% | 5.1% |
HR/FB | 11.9% | 13.3% |
Events | 3535 | 3368 |
Avg EV | 88.9 | 89.6 |
Barrel% | 7.9% | 8.2% |
Launch Angle | 13.3 | 13.5 |
Groundball% | 42.1% | 43.3% |
Contact% | 75.1% | 76.6% |
Z-Contact% | 83.8% | 84.3% |
Zone% | 50.5% | 50.2% |
O-Swing% | 28.0% | 27.5% |
Avg FB Velo | 94.2 | 94.0 |
FB% | 46.8% | 48.0% |
SL% | 22.7% | 22.4% |
The league-wide batting average has plunged 22 points over the same time period from last year, at least prior to games in Sacramento and Seattle. This comes in similar conditions, as teams were also facing the top three or four pitchers in each team's rotation with similar weather. I am honestly left at a loss to explain why the league-wide batting average was 22 points lower than it was at this point of last season before the late west coast votes came in, because there are no obvious leading indicators pointing to a massive change in behavior.
We have seen a slight increase in walks as well as a slight decrease in strikeouts over this time last year. That would logically mean more balls in play, but we also haven't seen a noticeable shift in the batted ball types. The batting average on balls in play for grounders was .254 during Opening Week last year and has fallen to .245 so far this season, while the figures on flyballs are .105 and .090, respectively. The improvements on converting grounders and flyballs into outs have not been significant, but when combined with more balls in play due to fewer strikeouts, it is making a difference in batted ball outcomes.
The table above shows an improvement in the overall quality of contact by Barrel%, which helps fuel the increase in homers, but to date we have also seen a lower average launch angle, resulting in more grounders. I was expecting to see more notable difference in the plate discipline metrics to explain the reduction in strikeouts, but the differences in the zone contact, overall contact, and O-Swing rates are rather negligible. I'm honestly at a loss to explain this large drop in batting average to start the season, because there isn't any one signal that jumps off the page to help explain it.
Over the past four seasons, the league has hit below .240 in just three full months: the first month of the 2022 season, as well as both May and September of this past season. That March/April of 2022 had a .231 average, while the two low months last season were both at .239. The league as a whole went on to hit .243 in 2022, as it did this past season as well. The .231 slow start in 2022 was the only month the league hit below .240 that year, as they went on to hit .246 in both May and June, .245 in July and August before ending the season hitting .240 in September. Next week, we will focus in on the power numbers, as we do every season two weeks in to get a feel for where offense may be headed, but the early data on batting average is not promising. This would be the third time in the five March/Aprils since the pandemic that the league has struggled out of the gate:
Early indicators are pointing toward us having yet another slow start in batting average this season unless things begin heating up as players get accustomed to being back home and away from the camps in Florida and Arizona. If it feels like one or more of your fantasy squads are off to terrible starts in batting average, you are not alone, because when several major-league teams are struggling to hit out of the gate as we're seeing now, our fantasy teams suffer those consequences.
