This week, I dig into another Vegas data set – strikeout props for starting pitchers. Sharp players are aware of the strikeout props, but the average DFS player probably is not. Since strikeouts are the most important statistic for a starting pitcher in daily fantasy baseball, it is important to know whether or not the strikeout props give us any insight into fantasy performance.
Let's start with some basic data (data used was obtained from DFS On Demand)
Period April 3 - July 10
Here is a chart of the strikeout prop, how many times it occurred and the percent of total.
The majority of the props fall between 4 and 5.5, with the average being 5.0. The range is 2 (one time) to 10 (twice – both Clayton Kershaw).
| PROP | COUNT | PERCENT |
| 2 | 1 | 0.04 |
| 2.5 | 13 | 0.56 |
| 3 | 54 | 2.34 |
| 3.5 | 164 | 7.10 |
| 4 | 337 | 14.60 |
| 4.5 | 476 | 20.61 |
| 5 | 454 | 19.66 |
| 5.5 | 388 | 16.80 |
| 6 | 166 | 7.19 |
| 6.5 | 109 | 4.72 |
| 7 | 44 | 1.91 |
| 7.5 | 54 | 2.34 |
| 8 | 20 | 0.87 |
| 8.5 | 18 | 0.78 |
| 9 | 4 | 0.17 |
| 9.5 | 5 | 0.22 |
| 10 | 2 | 0.09 |
| 2,309 |
The next chart shows the accuracy of strikeout props versus the actual average number of strikeouts.
| AVG K PROP | AVG SO | DIFF |
| 2.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| 3.0 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 3.5 | 3.4 | (0.1) |
| 4.0 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 |
| 5.0 | 4.8 | (0.2) |
| 5.5 | 5.6 | 0.1 |
| 6.0 | 6.1 | 0.1 |
| 6.5 | 6.4 | (0.1) |
| 7.0 | 6.6 | (0.4) |
| 7.5 | 7.4 | (0.1) |
| 8.0 | 9.5 | 1.5 |
| 8.5 | 9.3 | 0.8 |
| 9.0 | 9.3 | 0.3 |
| 9.5 | 6.8 | (2.7) |
| 10.0 | 8.5 | (1.5) |
| 5.0 | 4.9 | (0.0) |
The average strikeout prop is 5.0 and the average number of strikeouts for a starting pitcher is 4.9. With the exception of 2.0, 9.5 and 10.0, which are very small sample sizes, you can see again how the correlation between both measures plays out.
This next chart shows the correlation between the prop, average number of strikeouts and the DraftKings or FanDuel points.
| PROP | AVG SO | AVG DK PTS | AVG FD PTS |
| 2 | 6 | 12.9 | 24.6 |
| 2.5 | 2.92 | 6.72 | 15.36 |
| 3 | 3.37 | 8.99 | 20.59 |
| 3.5 | 3.43 | 8.48 | 19.27 |
| 4 | 4.28 | 11.64 | 24.18 |
| 4.5 | 4.58 | 12.38 | 25.06 |
| 5 | 4.79 | 13.49 | 26.93 |
| 5.5 | 5.64 | 16.01 | 30.53 |
| 6 | 6.12 | 18.16 | 33.93 |
| 6.5 | 6.44 | 19.35 | 36.26 |
| 7 | 6.61 | 21.56 | 39.57 |
| 7.5 | 7.35 | 22.83 | 41.32 |
| 8 | 9.5 | 29.6 | 51.2 |
| 8.5 | 9.28 | 30.46 | 51.6 |
| 9 | 9.25 | 29.06 | 49.58 |
| 9.5 | 6.8 | 23.29 | 42.06 |
| 10 | 8.5 | 33.13 | 52.8 |
| Grand Total | 4.94 | 13.82 | 27.36 |
You are looking for a 6.5 or higher strikeout prop when selecting your starting pitchers. Here is the problem, that only happens 11 percent of the time.
Top-25 Pitchers by Strikeout Prop
| PITCHER | AVG K PROP | AVG SO | DIFF |
| Clayton Kershaw | 8.8 | 9.1 | 0.2 |
| Max Scherzer | 7.9 | 8.6 | 0.7 |
| Jose Fernandez | 7.8 | 9.1 | 1.3 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0.1 |
| Chris Sale | 7.3 | 6.8 | -0.5 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 7.3 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 7 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
| David Price | 6.9 | 7.4 | 0.4 |
| Jake Arrieta | 6.8 | 6.7 | -0.1 |
| Corey Kluber | 6.7 | 6.8 | 0.1 |
| Danny Salazar | 6.4 | 6.9 | 0.5 |
| Chris Archer | 6.3 | 6.8 | 0.5 |
| Johnny Cueto | 6.3 | 6.4 | 0.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 6.2 | 6.1 | -0.2 |
| Rich Hill | 6.2 | 6.9 | 0.7 |
| Jon Lester | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 |
| Cole Hamels | 6 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Vincent Velasquez | 5.8 | 6.2 | 0.4 |
| Lance McCullers | 5.8 | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| Justin Verlander | 5.8 | 6.7 | 0.9 |
| Felix Hernandez | 5.8 | 5.3 | -0.5 |
| Drew Smyly | 5.7 | 6.4 | 0.6 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.7 | 6 | 0.3 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.7 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
| Steven Matz | 5.7 | 5.6 | -0 |
This chart shows the power of the top-25 pitchers and how important it is to use them in daily fantasy baseball. Also, you can see who outperforms their strikeout prop and who is underperforming. Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez have struggled at times this year.
Bottom-25 Pitchers by Strikeout Prop
| PITCHER | AVG K PROP | AVG SO | DIFF |
| Chris Young | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Mat Latos | 4 | 2.9 | -1 |
| Kendall Graveman | 3.9 | 3.6 | -0.4 |
| Sean Manaea | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| Jeff Locke | 3.9 | 3.1 | -0.9 |
| Chris Bassitt | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| Tommy Milone | 3.9 | 3.3 | -0.6 |
| Jered Weaver | 3.8 | 3.5 | -0.4 |
| Derek Holland | 3.8 | 3.1 | -0.8 |
| Alfredo Simon | 3.8 | 3.3 | -0.5 |
| Kyle Gibson | 3.8 | 4.1 | 0.3 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 3.8 | 3.3 | -0.4 |
| Adam Morgan | 3.8 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
| Mike Wright | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.1 |
| Wily Peralta | 3.7 | 3.2 | -0.4 |
| Doug Fister | 3.6 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
| Martin Perez | 3.5 | 2.9 | -0.6 |
| Eddie Butler | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.2 |
| Cody Anderson | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
| Tyler Wilson | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Williams Perez | 3.4 | 2.6 | -0.8 |
| Aaron Blair | 3.4 | 2.6 | -0.8 |
| Scott Feldman | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 3 | 2.6 | -0.4 |
| Justin Nicolino | 2.8 | 2.5 | -0.3 |
This is a group that you want to target your hitters against in daily fantasy baseball. You can also see that the worst strikeout pitchers often underperform toward their strikeout prop numbers also.
So what do all these charts mean in daily fantasy baseball? When selecting your starting pitchers, the Vegas data you want to look at is the money lines, over/unders and strikeout totals to make your decisions. You will have an edge over most players because of the strikeout prop not being used by most players.
