This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Saturday, April 13
YTD 20-18 (+0.33 units)
Prior article 4-3 (+0.23 units)
Prior article review
- Royals ML for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- My love for the Royals was blind in this game as they lost 6-1. This was more of the Mets lineup really waking up which is something to keep following
- Athletics ML for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -130)
- This ended up being a very low-score game win for the A's 2-1, which is common in Oakland, but I thought there would be some runs in the latter half. Paul Blackburn with another solid performance.
- Rangers/Astros OVER 9.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetRivers -102)
- I was all over this game as I wrote that it could "explode." The over hit early, unfortunately, I did not get the hitters right in the SGP
- Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Alvarez goes 0 for 3 as the Astros score eight runs. Ugh.
- Corey Seager OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
- This one hit early in the game as the Rangers put up 12 runs.
- SGP - Alvarez/Seager/Adolis Garcia 4+ Total bases for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +3383)
- Had the wrong Astro in this SGP as Kyle Tucker went off. Hopefully you were able to put something together based on my writeup, which said to get a lot of exposure to several key hitters on both sides.
- Rockies +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +100)
- Kevin Gausman is the next candidate for being shut down for the season. He got rocked again. This is key to remember that there is a key to taking heavy underdogs.
WEEKEND MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. 1-2 key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline / Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs, F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props)
MLB fans can get ready for the season with the BetMGM bonus code to get a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
Chicago Cubs 
at Seattle Mariners 
Shota Imanaga has been great in his first two starts, albeit a rain-shortened one against the Dodgers. But still, 12 strikeouts, no walks, 0.00 ERA and a 0.40 WHIP is impressive. The Mariners are a mess right now with their 29.4 percent strikeout rate, which is the worst in baseball along with just 2.6 runs per game at home.
Emerson Hancock is another pitcher showing a significant velocity drop with a 97 mph fastball that was clocked at just 93 in his last start where he allowed eight earned runs in 3.1 innings. We have seen this happen too much already which has me on the Cubs in a big way.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Mariners
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Imanaga OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +124)
Baseball fans in North Carolina can cash in on thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this MLB season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new players $250 in bonus bets after making a first bet of at least $10.
San Diego Padres 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
The Dodgers are 9-0 to the OVER on their team total at home and we saw that in action again Friday night with seven more runs. I have said this several times, you have to pick your spots on the Dodgers and laying huge moneyline prices is not the answer. Their infield defense, back end of their rotation, and bullpen all have question marks.
One thing that is not a question mark is the three-headed monster at the top of the lineup — Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They did a lot of damage again Friday night and I will continue to ride these horses in this spot against weaker starting pitching. Normally I would just do the RACE to five runs on the Dodgers, but I do not trust Gavin Stone against this Padres lineup.
MLB Picks for Padres at Dodgers
- Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Dodgers OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -130)
- SGP - Ohtani/Betts/Fernando Tatis Jr/Manny Machado 2+ Total Bases for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +1230)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
The complete opposite of my UNDER F5 starting pitcher system is this game. Two bad starting pitchers (Kyle Gibson versus Ryne Nelson) against two pretty good offenses with a total of nine or higher and moneyline between -100 and -125 is a play on the OVER F5.
Gibson has a 6.23 ERA and gave up six runs in the first inning to the Marlins in his last start meanwhile Nelson has an 8.22 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two starts. The system play lines up in a huge way in this one, but still just 0.5 unit play as it is a F5. The total has already moved from 9.5 to 10 and could climb to 10.5 by first pitch with a lot of juice on the OVER.
The good thing about a F5 game total OVER is that it is not dependant on both teams. One team could easily go over 5.5 runs in this game F5 with these starting pitchers.
MLB Picks for Cardinals at Diamondbacks
- Cardinals/Dbacks OVER 5.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Imanaga OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +124)
- Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Dodgers OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -130)
- SGP - Ohtani/Betts/Fernando Tatis Jr/Manny Machado 2+ Total Bases for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +1230)
- Cardinals/Dbacks OVER 5.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
