DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

We have a very small four-game slate to work with, but there are surprisingly good pitching options even so. There are also some underrated stacking options, so there is plenty to cover despite the relative lack of games.

Pitching

Kevin Gausman ($10,300) is deserving of his status as the highest-priced pitcher, while Luis Severino ($10,000) is just behind him. The duo square off against each other, so it only makes sense to roster one in contests where the focus is upside. Gausman is the fairly each choice of the duo. Severino is coming off injury and threw only 64 pitches in a very soft matchup against the Pirates in his return. On the other hand, the Jays have been a very strong offensive team in the last 30 days – maintaining a .332 wOBA – so I'd expect a worse outing from Severino.

Bryce Elder ($8,400) is priced up more than I would hope, and Washington's offense hasn't been as bad as would have been projected since the trade deadline. Despite those drawbacks, Elder has been extremely impressive in his sporadic samples at the big-league level this season. In his last three starts – which have spanned six weeks – he's recorded of 30.2, 23.1 and 18.6 DK points.

Roansy Contreras ($7,500) was hit hard his last time out, but he still managed 13.7 DK points thanks to 10 strikeouts. The Pirates will watch his workload carefully, but he has generally suppressed runs well and draws a matchup against a Reds offense that has the fourth-lowest wOBA in the last 30 days.

Top Hitters

So long as Ronald Acuna remains sidelined in Atlanta, Dansby Swanson ($5,500) should remain the leadoff hitter. That's a valuable spot to occupy, and Swanson will square off against Cory Abbott, who owns the worst or second-lowest  K% and second-highest HR/9 on the slate.

It's not often that I want to pay all the way up for a catcher but on a small slate we can make an exception. Adley Rutschman ($4,700) lands in a nice spot Monday as Connor Seabold has allowed seven earned runs in two of his four starts in the majors and has allowed fewer than four runs only once. Rutschman should hit second, so he can take advantage of what should be a good run-scoring environment.  

Rafael Devers ($5,800) and the Red Sox are also in a good position. Jordan Lyles has allowed 1.5 HR/9 across the last 30 days and has allowed 13 earned runs across his last 17.2 innings.

Value Hitters

Ji-hwan Bae ($2,300) has stepped into the leadoff role in Pittsburgh since being recalled Friday. He's gone only 2-for-11 since, but he's swiped two bags and has an extra-base hit. At a punt price, Bae is a value to target Monday.

Stuart Fairchild ($2,300) has hit in the middle of the Reds' lineup, and he's gotten on base at a .552 clip across his last 10 games. That doesn't mean his success will continue, but his price hasn't risen as a result of his hot stretch.

Stacks to Consider

Atlanta vs. Nationals (Cory Abbott): Dansby Swanson ($5,500), Michael Harris ($4,700), Matt Olson ($4,500)
Abbott has allowed 1.9 HR/9 and only a 4.6 K-BB% across his last 30 days, and his numbers aren't much better overall. Atlanta strikes out a lot, which always introduces some risk to a stack. On the other hand, the lineup still has the seventh-highest wOBA in the league in the last 30 days, paired with a .175 ISO. The return of Ronald Acuna could change the exact composition of the stack, but for now it's relatively cheap considering the talent level.

Orioles vs. Red Sox (Connor Seabold): Cedric Mullins ($5,000), Adley Rutschman ($4,700), Gunnar Henderson ($3,900)
Seabold's struggles have been covered, which is the main draw of the stack. Baltimore's lineup hasn't been very strong lately or for much of the season, but the cost to roster the top of the order is considerably less than that of Atlanta, Boston or the other elite stacks. This is a good option for those interested in building their lineup through at least one elite pitcher. This could be a popular option.

Pirates vs. Reds (Chase Anderson): Ji-hwan Bae ($2,300), Bryan Reynolds ($4,900), Oneil Cruz ($5,000)
The Pirates order is putrid, particularly after the top three. However, the trio of Bae, Reynolds and Cruz has been productive across the last 10 games (or since Bae was promoted). Though Reynolds and Cruz are both priced up, Bae is a punt option which saves some money in the stack. Anderson has had decent results since he's started to stretch out to a starter's workload, but he has just a 16:9 K:BB in that span and has benefitted from a .167 BABIP. The Pirates are likely to be less popular than the Orioles but still offer the opportunity to pay up for the top pitching options.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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