This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The MLB playoffs carry on, and Monday brings us Game 2 in each NLDS series. Both matchups got off to surprising starts, particularly in Los Angeles where the Dodgers were dominated by the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Phillies will also be looking to take a two-game lead in their series against Atlanta, the top regular-season team in the National League.
Pitchers
With only two games, the strategy changes from the typical main slate. There a couple of simple rules on most days: don't start pitchers facing each other and don't start hitters against your own pitchers. While the latter is generally still a good rule to follow, the former won't necessarily be. A starter in the playoffs can get a quick hook even if they are pitching relatively well – see Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of the NLDS – so the chances of getting two wins is diminished as compared to the regular season. Similarly, if there are two superior pitchers facing each other, it may be worth sacrificing the win to end up with more combined points as the end result.
Moving into the specific strategy for Monday, three of the four starters are tightly packed between $8,000 and $8,800. The outlier is Bobby Miller ($6,900). Given his price and the Dodgers outlook for Game 2, he could get quite a bit of attention. He's the worst pitcher of the group by roughly three percentage points in K% and about a third of a run in SIERA, neither of which is enough to make up the gap in price. That's a pretty good case to roster him, but the primary risk with him is quick hook. The Dodgers can't afford to go down 2-0 in the series, so even if Miller is pitching well but works his way into some danger, he could be gone before he reaches five innings.
Zack Wheeler ($8,800) and Zac Gallen ($8,500) stand out as the best plays from a statistical standpoint, and perhaps not coincidentally are the two highest-priced pitchers. That does preserve the potential for two wins, though Gallen stumbled down the stretch and pitched to a 4.03 ERA in the second half of the season. Max Fried ($8,000) is a fine option, as he showed a lot of ceiling down the stretch with performances of 36.8 and 27.1 DK points.
Overall, my favorite pairing would Wheeler-Gallen, and I'd be next most likely to play Wheeler-Fried.
Top Hitters
Corbin Carroll has quickly taken to the hero role this postseason, as he's been excellent in all three games to this point. He's likely to be pretty highly rostered, but Ketel Marte ($4,400) is also a decent option that checks in $1,200 cheaper. To the extent we want to read into limited sample-size splits, Miller has reverse splits, meaning righties hit him better than lefties. There are plenty of choices from there, but Marte has hit second in the order and has also performed well in the tiny postseason sample.
Wheeler is my favorite pitcher of the day, but there's no denying he loses effectiveness against lefties (15.7 K-BB%, .412 SLG). Atlanta has a pretty good lefty hitter in Matt Olson ($5,800), so rostering him in the hopes of a home run isn't a bad idea.
Value Bats
With this level of pitcher, we have to nitpick a bit. That leads us to Gallen, who allowed 1.3 HR/9 across the second half of the season and also was more vulnerable to lefties overall. Jason Heyward ($3,100), can be penciled into sixth in the order, which is a decent spot in the potent Dodgers' lineup.
See the blurb about Wheeler above, and a pick that requires less investment than Olson will be Eddie Rosario ($3,300).
Stacks to Consider
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Bobby Miller): Corbin Carroll ($5,600), Ketel Marte ($4,400), Tommy Pham ($3,700)
It's hard to imagine the Dodgers going down 2-0 in this series, but the pitching matchup suggests there's a very realistic chance that happens. Rostering the Diamondbacks comes down to the projected outcome of the game, which is that Miller seems like the far most likely pitcher to get a quick hook of this group. The Dodgers bullpen was already depleted in Game 1, so the Diamondbacks should be at a significant advantage if they can chase Miller early.
