This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have our final classic slate of the 2023 season/postseason Monday, with Game 7 of the ALCS and Game 6 of the NLCS on the schedule. Both series have been compelling and competitive, so it should be a great night of baseball. We'll take a brief look at every team in this breakdown.
Arizona at Philadelphia
In a rematch of Game 2, we have Merrill Kelly ($8,300) and Aaron Nola ($8,700) on the mound. Nola continued his dominance at home in that matchup, throwing six scoreless innings with a 7:0 K:BB. He's allowed only one home run in 18.2 total postseason innings, but if he's going to get burned, it's likely to be by the long ball. In large field tournaments, that could put Corbin Carroll ($5,400) into the mix, but I'd be more likely to target Geraldo Perdomo ($3,000) or Alek Thomas ($2,800) as options with a low likelihood of delivering but also coming at a low price.
Kelly has pitched well this season but was less effective on the road. He gave up three home runs in Game 2, which hasn't been a problem for him in a longer track record. Given that, if I were to play the Phillies, I'd stack them in the hopes that multiple players reach base before a big hit drives in multiple runs. The top hitters are obvious, but as has been the case, Alec Bohm ($3,800) and Bryson Stott ($3,900) represent value as the three and four hitters. J.T. Realmuto ($4,200) is another value option based on price.
Texas at Houston
On paper, Max Scherzer ($8,500) is as good of a play as any of the other pitchers on the slate. However, he didn't look good in his return from a shoulder injury in Game 3. It's possible he returns to form in Game 7, but the matchup makes him a tough sell. Meanwhile, Cristian Javier ($7,300) has turned things around in the postseason after closing the regular season poorly, posting 22.5, 29.1 and 16.4 DK points in his three appearances. His underlying numbers are less compelling as he has 16 strikeouts and eight walks across 16.2 innings. He can bused to open up spending for an elite Phillies or Astros stack, and considering the other uncertain pitching options – with the exception of Nola – that's not a bad option.
For those looking to stack the Rangers lineup, Javier has considerable splits when facing lefties. The Rangers happen to have a couple good options in Corey Seager ($6,200) and Evan Carter ($4,300), but completing the stack with another high-priced bat will require a few punt plays mixed in. Pay attention to the lineup and batting order, but Mitch Garver ($3,500) and Jonah Heim ($3,000) have the potential to be hitting in the middle of the order at a moderate price.
There's not a particularly clear way to attack Scherzer, and the only potential value is Jose Abreu ($4,100) based on batting order. Otherwise, stacking the top options in the order makes sense, which will require using Javier in a correlated move. That's also a logical move based on roster construction.
Conclusion
I'd rank the starting pitchers and stacks in the following order:
SP – Nola, Javier, Scherzer, Kelly
Stacks – PHI, HOU, TEX, ARI
