This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Fall is here, which means soon enough the MLB postseason will be here, rife with wild card teams now. Thursday is almost a full slate of games, but not on the DFS front. Too much afternoon action for that! In fact, to get to eight games for their main slate, DraftKings is having to go with every game starting at 6:35 p.m. EDT or later. That's earlier than usual, so be ready. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Justin Verlander, HOU at BAL ($10,700): You basically have to go with top-of-the-line pitchers Thursday. Several of the 10 projected starters are upper echelon, and the ones who aren't have tough matchups. Verlander, though, is arguably the best pitcher of the bunch and has the best matchup. He has an 1.78 ERA and is facing the team thank ranks 22nd in runs scored. With their playoff seeding lock up, the Astros might be quick to pull Verlander, but he should at least get five innings in.
Shane Bieber, CLE at CWS ($10,100): Since the start of August, Bieber has looked like the dude that won a Cy Young. In nine starts he has an 1.72 ERA. This year, Bieber also has a 2.67 ERA on the road. The White Sox hit for average, but are still in the middle of MLB in runs scored because there is more to baseball that slapping singles (the White Sox are bottom 10 in home runs and last in triples).
Hayden Wesneski, CHC at PIT ($6,900): With two high-salaried pitchers leading off my recommendations, I wanted a third option that could save you a little cash from your salary bank. Thus, Wesneski, who gets a matchup with the team ranked 28th in runs scored. Through three MLB appearances, Wesneski has a 2.30 ERA, and in his last outing he went seven innings and only allowed one run.
Top Target
This season, Austin Riley ($5,300) has exchanged a little average for a bit more power. He has 37 home runs and 37 doubles in 146 games. Plus, he has an 1.132 OPS versus lefties. Ranger Suarez, a southpaw, has a 3.53 ERA, but a 4.70 ERA at home. On top of that, righties have hit .261 against Suarez.
Thanks to going deep Wednesday, Vladimir Guerrero ($5,200) has his second 30-homer season of his career. He's also hit .279 for good measure, showing more batting skill than just power. Ryan Yarbrough is serving as the bulk reliever after an opener, and he's allowed righties to hit .302 against him.
Bargain Bat
Not surprisingly, lefty Josh Naylor ($3,900) has struggled versus left-handed pitchers, but he has an .837 OPS versus righties. However, he also has an .840 OPS in away games. I hope Johnny Cueto is feeling good after his bout with dizzy spells, but the fact is he has a 3.89 ERA at home this year and has struck out a mere 5.67 batters per nine innings this season.
Even for a southpaw, Alfonso Rivas ($2,300) has pretty extreme splits. He can't hit lefties at all, but in his career he's managed a .724 OPS versus right handers. Mitch Keller has a career 5.11 ERA, and since 2020 lefties have hit .298 against him as well.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Orioles (Kyle Bradish): Kyle Tucker ($5,000), Alex Bregman ($5,000), Trey Mancini ($3,800)
Bradish looked sharp in his handful of Triple-A starts, but MLB has proven to be a little too tough for him. He has a 5.05 ERA, and a 5.80 ERA at home for good measure. While Bradish is righty handed, he has been tuned up by righties at a .307 clip, so I have two righties in this stack.
Southpaw Tucker has 29 home runs and 22 stolen bases. A few big Astros bats have been decidedly better at home, but Tucker has an .878 OPS on the road. Bregman has been much better at home, but he also has a .909 OPS against righties, so I still like him. Additionally, he has an .860 OPS over the last two weeks. Mancini, who will be facing his former team, has a .764 OPS over the last 14 days. He's also been better versus righties, posting a .770 OPS against them.
Brewers at Reds (Mike Minor): Willy Adames ($4,700), Hunter Renfroe ($4,000), Andrew McCutchen ($3,600)
After two seasons with an ERA beginning with the number "five," Minor decided to chance the pace. That is to say, he has a 6.06 ERA in 2022. He's allowed a staggering 2.20 home runs per nine innings, and righties have hit .316 against the southpaw. It's a perfect stack for three righties.
Adames has a .958 OPS over the last three weeks. His recent run of hot play has him up to 31 homers on the campaign. Renfoe has 25 home runs of his own. He also has a .492 slugging percentage against lefties since 2020. McCutchen's slugging percentage is unremarkable, but he still has 17 homers to go with eight stolen bases. Additionally, since 2020 his OPS against lefties is .914.
Red Sox at Yankees (Jameson Taillon): Rafael Devers ($5,400), Xander Bogaerts ($5,300), Triston Casas ($2,100)
What you see is what you get with Taillon, which is to say he has a 4.04 ERA and 4.04 FIP. However, over his last nine starts he has a 4.78 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs over 49.0 innings. I was of two minds here, because righties have hit Taillon better, in spite of his being right handed himself, but Yankee Stadium often plays into the hands of lefties with power. So, I have an elite lefty, an elite righty, and also an upside play.
Speaking of consistency, Devers has a .529 slugging percentage at home and on the road since 2020. He also has an .872 OPS over the last three weeks. Bogaerts has 14 homers and has slugged .471, but is elite with his .317 average and .385 OBP. Plus, he has an 1.094 OPS across the last 21 days. Casas is a recent Triple-A call up, but the Rotowire rankings had him as the best position-player prospect for the Red Sox. He's a lefty first baseman, and he posted an .863 OPS in Triple-A.
