This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We get a pair of pivotal Game 3 matchups in the ALDS on Tuesday, as the Twins and Astros fight for control over their five-game set and the Rangers try to close out a sweep over the Orioles. For some quick thoughts on how to handle a two-game slate, check out yesterday's article. In short, don't be afraid to break some typical rules such as rostering pitchers that are facing each other. Onto the games we go.
Pitchers
There are two tiers of pitchers based on pricing. The top tier is Sonny Gray ($9,000) and Nathan Eovaldi ($8,800). Judging by both season-long and recent form, Gray is the superior option. Including all four starters, he has the highest K%, K-BB% as well as the lowest SIERA and HR/9. He was also excellent in his only postseason start, throwing five shutout innings with six strikeouts and two walks.
Eovaldi would have been easy to dismiss, as he had some extensive struggles since returning from a forearm injury in early September. Across his final six regular season starts, he topped out at 12.5 DK points and turned in negative points on two occasions. He then delivered a 29.4 DK point performance in his only postseason start. I'd take Gray over Eovaldi based on that recent form, but Eovaldi just showed his potential ceiling.
That leaves Cristian Javier ($7,300) and Dean Kremer ($6,900) in the second tier. Both pitchers are significantly flawed, as each served up 1.4 HR/9 in the regular season. Javier has a slightly higher strikeout rate (23.1 percent vs. 21.4 percent) but gives that up with a higher walk rate. Two things point me in the direction of Javier. First, Kremer is likely to have a quick hook as the Orioles look to keep their postseason hopes alive. Next, the Twins had a league-high 27 percent strikeout rate, which should give Javier some strikeout upside even if he gives up runs.
Top Hitters
From a hitter's perspective, today will be a day of handedness advantage. The first place to look is in Texas, as Kremer has allowed 1.8 HR/9 to lefty batters this season. That leaves Corey Seager ($6,500) and Nathaniel Lowe ($4,200) in good spots.
The performance of Eovaldi feels like the most volatile of the slate, so being on the right side of the Orioles' bats against him seems to be key. I'd guess the field will bet on Eovaldi, forgetting about his struggles prior to his playoff appearance. Stacking or betting heavily on the Orioles is a solid move as a result, and Gunnar Henderson ($5,200) as the top option as the team's leadoff hitter.
Value Hitters
Cristian Javier has had trouble against lefties this season (.350 wOBA), and the Twins have the bats to take advantage. Alex Kirilloff ($3,100) comes at a nice value given that he should slot in fifth in the lineup. Edouard Julien ($3,700) is also a decent option as the likely leadoff hitter.
Stacks to Consider
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer): Corey Seager ($6,500), Adolis Garcia ($5,300), Evan Carter ($4,700)
This game is likely where we'll see the concentration of bats being rostered. The Rangers are the obvious choice based on matchup so this will likely be a chalky option. In addition to the lineup being chalk, rostering the best Texas hitters will almost lock Javier into the lineup based on price. That will leave rosters very similar. If both Javier and the Rangers deliver, tournaments will come down to slight differences in a few roster spots.
For those reasons, it's worth positioning rosters betting on one of those two outcomes to fail and the most straightforward way to do so is to either stack the Orioles or Twins.
