DraftKings Sportsbook: Best Wild Card Bets

Written by

James Anderson

Published on October 4, 2021

Yankees @ Red Sox

Tuesday, 8:08 PM ET

YANKEES

Offense:

wRC+ on the road against RHP since Aug. 1: 110 - 4th in MLB

Expected lineup:

Gleyber Torres, 2B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Aaron Judge, RF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Joey Gallo, LF
Gio Urshela, SS — questionable with a bruised thigh
Brett Gardner, CF
Gary Sanchez, C
Rougned Odor, 3B

Pitching:

Gerrit Cole, RHP

6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 28:9 K:BB in 26.1 IP since Sept. 7

3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 67:13 K:BB in 51 IP since Aug. 16

Yankees relievers on the road since Aug. 1: 3.68 FIP (8th in MLB), 16.0 K-BB% (7th in MLB)

RED SOX

Offense:

wRC+ at home against RHP since Aug. 1: 144 - best in MLB

Expected lineup:

Enrique Hernandez, 2B
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Rafael Devers, 3B
J.D. Martinez, DH — questionable with sprained ankle
Alex Verdugo, CF
Hunter Renfroe, RF
Bobby Dalbec, 1B
Kevin Plawecki, C — typically catches Eovaldi, but could go with Christian Vazquez

Pitching:

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 32:7 K:BB in 25.2 IP since Sept. 8

3.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 71:11 K:BB in 56.1 IP since Aug. 11

Red Sox relievers at home since Aug. 1: 4.76 FIP (26th in MLB), 13.1 K-BB% (20th in MLB)

Analysis:

This starting pitching matchup is much closer to even than a casual fan might guess based on the two pitchers involved. Nathan Eovaldi has had a great season and has actually been pitching better than Gerrit Cole lately. The Yankees have a very clear bullpen edge, while the Red Sox have a clear offensive edge on paper, especially with DJ LeMahieu (hip) unavailable. I expect J.D. Martinez to play through his ankle injury, given that he is the designated hitter. I also expect Gio Urshela to play through his bruised thigh, although his range at shortstop could be a storyline. Even though Tanner Houck threw 53 pitches Saturday, I'd expect him to be available for an inning or two. It's possible we see any of Boston's other starters pitch in relief, while the Yankees have a more traditional collection of quality relievers to lean on.

Best Bet on Draft Kings: Red Sox +105 moneyline

I view this game as a toss-up, so getting Boston for plus money seems like a strong value. A safer, less lucrative bet would be Boston +1.5 runs at -150.

Cardinals @ Dodgers

Wednesday, 8:10 PM ET

CARDINALS

Offense:

wRC+ on the road against RHP since Aug. 1: 107 - 8th in MLB

Expected lineup:

Tommy Edman, 2B
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Tyler O'Neill, LF
Nolan Arenado, 3B
Dylan Carlson, RF
Yadier Molina, C
Edmundo Sosa, SS — Paul DeJong could get the nod based on experience
Harrison Bader, CF
Adam Wainwright, P

Pitching:

Adam Wainwright, RHP

3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15:7 K:BB in 30.1 IP since Sept. 8

2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 44:13 K:BB in 66.2 IP since Aug. 11

Cardinals relievers on the road since Aug. 1: 3.77 FIP (12th in MLB), 15.1 K-BB% (10th in MLB)

DODGERS

Offense:

wRC+ at home against RHP since Aug. 1: 119 - 5th in MLB

Expected lineup:

Mookie Betts, RF
Corey Seager, SS
Trea Turner, 2B
Will Smith, C
Justin Turner, 3B
AJ Pollock, LF
Chris Taylor, CF
Cody Bellinger, 1B — Max Muncy (elbow) is doubtful
Max Scherzer, P

Pitching:

Max Scherzer, RHP

2.70 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 39:3 K:BB in 33.1 IP since Sept. 6

2.02 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 73:7 K:BB in 58 IP since Aug. 15

Dodgers relievers at home since Aug. 1: 3.67 FIP (5th in MLB), 18.7 K-BB% (5th in MLB)

Analysis:

The Dodgers' lineup sans Max Muncy is good, but not quite the juggernaut it could be at full strength, especially when factoring in how much Chris Taylor has cooled off in recent weeks. That said, the Dodgers have a massive edge on the pitching side, so they shouldn't need much in terms run support. Adam Wainwright has had an excellent season, but he hasn't been the same pitcher from a bat-missing standpoint over his last handful of starts. Lefty Julio Urias should be available out of the bullpen for Los Angeles, which is a massive swing piece — the Dodgers could conceivably lean on Scherzer and Urias to get eight or nine combined innings.

Best Bet on Draft Kings: Dodgers to score first and win +110

It's -220 to bet the Dodgers moneyline, which isn't great value. However, if you buy my premise that the Cardinals will really struggle to score runs in this one, betting on the Dodgers to score first and win for plus money makes a lot of sense. I also like the under on 7.5 runs at -105.