MLB Expert Picks and Best Bets for Wednesday, June 19

MLB Expert Picks and Best Bets for Wednesday, June 19

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for 
Wednesday, June 19

The hottest teams in June are the Seattle Mariners at 12-4 (75 percent), followed surprisingly by the New York Mets at 11-4 (73 percent). The Yankees had the best record in May at 21-7 and are continuing their domination with an 11-5 (69 percent) record in June. The Guardians are tied with the Yankees in June. The worst team is the Miami Marlins, with just three wins in 15 games and the Rockies and A's have won four games each.  

The AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians are just 6-7 in June in large part because they have had a league-worst one quality start and 12 non-quality starts (minimum of six innings pitched and not allowing more than three earned runs). In 17 games played in June, the Rockies' starting pitching has produced just two quality starts by Dakota Hudson in a 5-0 road loss to Chris Paddack and the Twins and Cal Quantrill in a 5-4 road win over Louie Varland of the Twins. 

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The Best Bets to Make in the Rays vs. Twins Game 

Two teams heading in opposite directions will square off in the second game of their three-game series when the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Minnesota Twins at Target Field with the first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET. The Twins won their sixth consecutive game, 7-6, in Game 1 and are priced as –155 favorites using the moneyline. The total for Game 2 is priced at MLB Odds & Betting Lines: Moneylines, Run Lines & Totals June (rotowire.com) reflecting a bit more betting interest on the Over in early betting action. 

The Twins have bounced back strong, winning eight of their last 10 games to close within 4.5 games of the Guardians, who are just 4-6 over their last 10 games. Before the recent win streak, the Twins went 9-15, averaging a –111 favorite wager for a –29 percent ROI and losing $8,680 for a Dime Bettor.  

The Rays have lost their ability to win games of late and trail the AL East Division-leading Yankees by 16 games with a 34-39 record. They have gone 9-17, averaging a –100 wager for a –33 percent ROI and losing $10,020 for the Dime Bettor since May 19 and have lost three of their last four games. The market has adjusted the pricing of Rays games, and they are slightly undervalued currently. 

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Who Are the Starters For This Game? 

The Rays will send to the hill Taj Bradley, who is 2-4 in seven starts with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP, including 50 strikeouts and 12 walks in 38.1 innings of work. In night starts he has been much better, going 2-2 in four starts with a solid 2.88 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, including 34 strikeouts and just five walks. He is coming off his best start of the season, throwing seven innings and allowing two runs, zero ER, three hits, 11 strikeouts and just two walks in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. 

The Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who is 5-5 in 14 starts with a 3.35 ERA and a 0.942 WHIP, including 90 strikeouts and 14 walks in 86 innings of work. He has faced the Rays once, getting a no-decision in a 3-2 win where he went 4.2 innings, allowing two ER on five hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. 

The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 95-107 record that has averaged a 155-underdog bet resulting in a $48,930 profit and 16 percent ROI for the Dime Bettor.  The requirements are: 

  • Bet on AL underdogs priced between a 125 and 175 underdog using the moneyline. 
  • The dog is starting a pitcher with an ERA ranging between 4.20 and 4.70 in the current season. 
  • The favorite has a starter on the hill who is averaging 5.0 or more strikeouts per start in the current season. 
  • The game is part of the same series and the dog lost the previous game. 

 My best bet for Wednesday is on the Tampa Bay Rays.

How to Analyze Parlays with Boosted Odds 

In the betting market boost parlays have become enormously popular, but a word of caution when looking to exploit the offerings. Today, at ESPN Bet they have an intriguing Philadelphia Phillies Parlay of the Day featuring the following legs to the parlay. 

I went into my omnipotent MLB database and learned that this specific feat has occurred just eight times since Trea Turner joined the Phillies spanning 235 games or 3.4 percent of all games played. Not all three players were in the lineup in those 235 games due to injuries and days off. They have played 163 games together so the eight occurrences where each of them recorded at least one RBI is 4.91 percent, which would convert to about a +1900 fair-value price in the betting markets. 

The odds boost price has been set at +1250 so it is still significantly overvalued as the book must manage their exposure of these popular bets. However, if we consider that the Phillies won seven of the eight games in which the trio recorded an RBI, the boosted odds become significantly better. Adding in the fourth leg that the Phillies must win lowers the true odds to +1500. 

Schwarber bats leadoff, then Turner and Harper at the top of the Phillies' scoring machine, which makes it a bit more difficult for them to each record an RBI. When all is said and done getting +1250 for these three to record an RBI is a fun bet with pizza money and one I will take to the window. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Ryan
John has handicapped professional sports for 28+ years with a proven track record of success. He believes profits are earned over the long-term using advanced analytics, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. John has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and signs off with "Bet with your heads and not over it. And may all the wins be yours." John provides advice with no hype -- just facts that you can trust.
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