This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A 12-game slate awaits in Tuesday's main contest, and it's one lacking in top targets on the mound. But as this column progressed, I found ample options to choose from in the mid-tier of arms. Managers are forced to choose between upside or stability, name recognition or current form paired with plus matchups.
Pitching
Walker Buehler, LAD vs. SEA ($10,800): There's no way I'm paying $11,000 for John Means coming off his no-hitter. If others feel the same way, perhaps that makes the Baltimore southpaw's usage so low he's appealing, but the obvious pivot is Buehler. He's fanned at least eight in three straight and faces a Mariners lineup that whiffs 25.4 percent of the time against righties while posting just a .295 wOBA, 94 wRC+ and .151 ISO. The floor looks very stable.
Madison Bumgarner, ARI vs. MIA ($8,700): I don't love Bumgarner's pricing resurgence, but the form paired with matchup is appealing. Bumgarner has gone for between 33 and 52 FDP in each of his last four, including a 40-point outing against these Marlins. Miami fans 25.1 percent of the time against lefties, and their .315 wOBA and 102 wRC+ aren't something that will scare us away.
Marcus Stroman, NYM vs. BAL ($8,400): Stroman has been worth 36 FDP or more in four of his six starts, and is clearly in a plus spot here. Baltimore ranks last in the league against righties, carrying a .278 wOBA while adding just a 79 wRC+, .142 ISO and 24.4 percent K-rate. 5x value may not be attainable, but 4x is a disappointment in this spot.
Dylan Cease, CWS vs. MIN ($8,200): I'm hoping Cease goes overlooked and comes with low usage. He's gone for 119 FDP combined across his last two starts and faces a severely depleted Twins lineup missing Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff and Luis Arraez. Cease is fanning 11.9 per nine innings after just a 6.8 mark a year ago, and he has limited homers to just 7.1 percent of his fly balls, against 18.2 percent last year and 21.4 percent in 2019.
Kwang Hyun Kim, STL at MIL ($6,800): Kim is in a nice little groove, allowing just one run in each of his last three starts. He's not working deep enough to give us a quality start boost, but he's limiting damage and should be a position for a win. Pair that with a weak Brewers offense that has managed a .280 wOBA, 76 wRC+ and 26.8 percent K-rate against lefties, and there's a clear path to 4x value for Kim, if not more.
Top Targets
Fernando Tatis, SD at COL ($4,700): The tag is exorbitant, but I'm hoping that comes with low usage. It'd be foolish to omit a piece of this contest, and with the plethora of pitching options and cheaper stacks below, why not take Tatis' upside? Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela is allowing a .397 wOBA to righties in Coors Field and a 2.25 HR/9 to same-handed bats. Tatis has only two long balls in 11 games, but we know the potential he possesses. It's a huge salary, but one that can return value with pitching point-total upside if the ball is flying.
Mookie Betts, LAD vs. SEA ($4,100): Here's to hoping we're off the Yusei Kikuchi bandwagon. He's allowed six homers in as many starts, and three or more runs in four of those outings. He's still missing bats, but less so against opposite-handed opponents, and Betts fans just 16.7 percent of the time. Justin Turner ($3,700) has more favorable splits and is also a strong option, but Betts puts the ball in play and has multi-hit games in four of his last eight. Stable floor, high ceiling at a bit of a discount Tuesday.
Value Bats
Pete Alonso, NYM vs. BAL ($3,400): Alonso remains at a price point where he doesn't really hurt you if his 30.8 percent K-rate rears its ugly head. He's hitting lefties okay (.386 wOBA, .300 ISO, 25.2 percent hard hit rate), and I have no problem chasing a bit here with Means coming off a 113-pitch outing.
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. TOR ($3,200): There are a number of angles for the Atlanta offense Tuesday. Ronald Acuna ($4,500) is stealing bases again and raking against lefties, while Dansby Swanson ($2,700) has really warmed up over the last week. Albies is always a target when allowed to face a lefty though. He went yard the last time Atlanta saw Robbie Ray, and he's tripled in consecutive games, adding a double and six runs scored since that April 30 contest.
Randy Arozarena, TB vs. NYY ($3,100): Arozarena isn't showing the power we expected after last year's postseason, carrying only a .163 ISO into Tuesday. But he has a 0.0 percent soft-hit rate against lefties, providing 59.3 percent medium contact and 40.7 percent hard contact, leading to a stable .375 wOBA. Mix in a willingness to run, and there's not a lot required to get to 3x value against Jordan Montgomery, who is far more vulnerable to opposite-handed bats.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Erick Fedde: Bryce Harper ($4,100), J.T. Realmuto ($3,400), Jean Segura ($2,900)
Fedde has been feast or famine, allowing one run in each of three starts, but 13 total in his other three. The hope here is the Phillies' top of the order gets three chances before seeing a decent Nats' bullpen. Segura's .400 wOBA and 154 wRC+ are the lowest of these three, and the pricing works out to an average tag of $3,467 across a stack that should hit 2-3-4.
White Sox vs. Kenta Maeda: Tim Anderson ($3,600), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700)
Maeda is coming off a solid showing against a weak-hitting Rangers squad, but he allowed 11 runs across his previous two starts versus Cleveland and Oakland. He's surrendering a .420 wOBA to lefties, which rises to .474 on the road, where he's also allowed a .390 clip to righties. These three White Sox don't bring massive power upside, but Anderson and Moncada sit with respectable .358 and .343 wOBAs and come at a discount. Grandal is the GPP wildcard. His walk rate (25.3 percent) is higher than his strikeout rate (24.3), he's likely hitting fourth, and he can drive this stack in. He's just been unlucky with a .083 BABIP. Grandal has gone for 3x value in five of his last seven despite only one hit.
