This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, June 25
YTD 98-97-1
Prior article 1-3 ( -1.75 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Atlanta Braves 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
Weather starts to play a big factor in the summer months and St. Louis is a spot where you need to check the temperature and humidity. We do have a 94-degree forecast but with 46-percent humidity. I will look at going under here with two pitchers who have been solid in Reynaldo Lopez and Kyle Gibson. Lopez has allowed 1.2 earned runs over his last 10 while Gibson is at 1.8.
The Cardinals are ninth in wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, but they just have a 0.20 BB/K ratio, which is tied for dead last.
I used to lean F5 in these types of games, but I have found myself just taking the full-game total to get the insurance of more runs. This is only if the bullpens are relatively decent (no White Sox, Rockies, Nationals, etc).
MLB Picks for Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
- Braves/Cardinals UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -108)
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Washington Nationals 
at San Diego Padres 
Splits are the best way to find value in a baseball line because oddsmakers typically are not pricing them in. The Padres against left-handed pitching is a split I have looked at most of the season because of their wRC+ being low. But I also love MacKenzie Gore, who is developing into an ace.
There are a couple of things working in favor of the Nats. The original starting pitcher was Yu Darvish, but it was changed to Adam Mazur and Fernando Tatis, Jr. will not be in the lineup due to a quad injury. Mazur has a 7.27 ERA in 17.1 innings along with 16 walks to 11 strikeouts.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Padres
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
Colorado Rockies 
at Houston Astros
Laying -260 on the Astros is not an option unless it is part of a parlay, so looking at the run line we get the Astros at -120. We already know how bad the Rockies are on the road historically and Austin Gomber is starting to unravel with a 5.05 ERA on the road. His numbers in the last five road starts are 5.76 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.8 K/9. Gomber is just 5-10 straight up in his last 15 road starts.
Hunter Brown has been a play on pitcher under the radar because his April numbers were so bad. But since May 5, he has a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. The Astros are starting to play good baseball, going 7-3, 13-7 in their last 10/20 games.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Astros
- Astros -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -120)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Braves/Cardinals UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -108)
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
- Astros -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -120)
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