This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, June 19
YTD 98-97-1
Prior article (1-5 -4.65 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Houston Astros 
at Chicago White Sox 
It has been the tale of two seasons so far for Hunter Brown.
His last four starts - 24 innings, 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
His previous 9 starts - 37.1 innings, 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 5.1 BB/9
A lot of the bad data for Brown came in two starts on the road against the Rangers and Royals. Even during the rough patches, a lot of sharp baseball bettors and analysts were praising Brown and expected strong regression. With the conflicting data on the Astros against lefties (lowest strikeout rate) against Garrett Crochet (highest strikeout rate in baseball), I am avoiding any side/total and just leaning on Brown continuing his success against the worst team in baseball. Brown has hit 18 recorded outs in 4 straight starts.
MLB Picks for Astros at White Sox
- Hunter Brown OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1.3 unit (DraftKings -130)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Washington Nationals 
As long as Patrick Corbin is a starting pitcher in the big leagues, I will target ways to go against him. The easiest way to do this is taking the OVER on the total for the DBacks on the F5. Corbin has allowed at least 3.0 runs in nine out of 14 starts.
Arizona averages 4.8 runs per game as a whole, so asking them to go over 2.5 runs against one of the worst pitchers looks optimal.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Nationals
- Diamondbacks OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -135)
Baltimore Orioles 
at New York Yankees
The Orioles have been underdogs only seven times this season and this is the highest of the group. This feels like a significant overreaction to the return of Gerrit Cole, who will most likely be on a pitch count. The Orioles are still the best team in baseball in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching (133) over the last 30 days.
Baseball wagering is very much driven on finding value and playing out the percentages. I will take the Orioles as juicy road dogs and look for an outright win.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Yankees
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +145)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Hunter Brown OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1.3 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Diamondbacks OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -135)
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +145)
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