This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks Today: Props and Wagers for Sunday, April 9
Will the Increase in Scoring Continue?
MLB executives added a suite of new rules aimed at shortening the games and making them more engaging to watch. Game times are much shorter and there are interesting developments appearing that may give us a betting edge moving forward. Although a small sample size, scoring has increased with games averaging 4.78 runs per game (RPG), which is an increase of 19% over last season's April scoring average of 4.03 RPG. This is the highest scoring April since 4.84 RPG were scored in April of the 2009 season. Over the past 15 seasons, games played in April have been accompanied by depressed scoring when compared to season averages. If the current increase in scoring continues at current levels or increases, there will be solid opportunities to bet the Over before the market adjusts in the months ahead.
Betting the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies stumbled out of the gate with a 1-5 record amid a difficult road schedule featuring three games each against the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees. They have now returned home to the hitter-friendly confines and a sold-out Citizens Bank Park winning two of the first three games of their series against the Reds. The Phillies face a much easier schedule now and will host the Miami Marlins for a three-game set before heading out on the road to play a four-game series against the Reds and a three-game set against the Chicago White Sox. The Phillies will be at or above the .500 mark when they return home to host the Colorado Rockies on April 20.
So, bet the Phillies using the series lines in each of their next four series. I will provide updates on the prices the market is offering and betting strategies I have used for over two decades that have done quite well.
Sign up at FanDuel using the FanDuel promo code, which gets new customers a No Sweat First Bet worth up to $1,000. Phillies fans located in Pennsylvania can check out all the latest Pennsylvania betting apps here at RotoWire.
Houston Astros (3-5) vs Minnesota Twins (5-2) Best Bets and Props
The Astros are not playing like a reigning World Champion. In fact, they broke an unenviable franchise record with 33 strikeouts over their past two losses against the Twins' sensational pitching. Over the past seasons, Astros skipper Dusty Baker has created a lineup of disciplined hitters not prone to chasing balls out of the strike zone, but the Twins staff is getting them to chase, and the result is strikeouts. So, for the Twins to record this many strikeouts against an elite hitting team are outstanding.
The Twins lost all six games against the Astros last season and are poised to return the favor completing a three-game sweep Sunday. The Twins starting pitchers have completed a minimum of 5 innings in each of their first eight games and the bullpen has pitched with the lead and in low-stress situations. The Twins had allowed a league-low 11 runs to start the season which is the lowest sum in 55 years when they allowed 11 runs to start the 1968 season.
The Twins' Joey Gallo is seeing the ball quite well and is averaging an insanely high 82% hard-hit ball percentage, 99 MPH exit velocity, and 27-degree launch angle (Statcast data provider). A hard-hit percentage over any stretch of games of 45% or more is considered quite good and the Twins have three other players exceeding that percentage. The Astros starter is Hunter Brown, who allowed 88 MPH exit velocity and an 11-degree launch angle in his first start and that is not a favorable combination when facing the Twins lineup.
The Twins will have Tyler Mahle on the hill, who has excellent late-breaking arm-side and heavy sinking action with his pitches. He uses an exceptional splitter for his out pitch and gets an above-average amount of batters to chase out of the strike zone. His pitching assets match up well against the Astros' current willingness to swing at offerings out of the zone.
Bet the Twins on the money line currently priced at –105 at DraftKings. Always shop for the best price using the latest MLB odds, which you can do easily on the Rotowire's odds boards. Be sure to take a look at RotoWire's MLB player props page for the best prices on props across a multitude of sportsbooks.
The DraftKings promo code gets new customers access to $150 in bonus bets when they sign up using the DraftKings promo code.
MLB Player Prop Bets Today
- Bet Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 strikeouts –110 offered at Draftkings
- Bet the Phillies Taijuan Walker Over 5.5 strikeouts –140 at FanDuel
- Bet the Phillies Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +185 at DraftKings
- Bet the Astros Hunter Brown Over 5.5 hits allowed –105 at DraftKings
