MLB Best Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, Aug. 17
Season: 82-96-1 -37.79 units
Prior Article: 5-0 +5.05 units
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Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals
My original intention on this game was to avoid anything with the Red Sox lineup against Patrick Corbin because of their three-week offensive slump against a notoriously bad pitcher. I also wanted to lean on Chris Sale, who looked dominant in his first start back.
But the numbers just did not add up as the game total of 9.5 is pretty inflated, but the team totals on the Nationals for the first five (1.5) and game (3.5) just do not provide any value and very little margin for error. I am going to bank on this one being like 5-2 Red Sox as both bullpens are pretty decent in case the starters give up some runs.
The Red Sox have averaged 3.3 runs per game over their last eight road games and over three runs in just three out of their last 10. Boston's last five games have gone UNDER the total.
MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Nationals
- Red Sox/Nationals UNDER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
This is about as even a matchup as you can get with the moneyline split down the middle and the total landing at the default 8.5 runs. Both starting pitchers have been decent in Tarik Skubal and Xzavion Curry, which has me looking at the UNDER on the game total.
The good thing is we have some recent data that also helps the UNDER, as the Tigers are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six. The Guardians are 5-0, 8-2, 14-6 to the UNDER at home in their last five, 10 and 20 games. The Guardians have averaged just 2.4 runs per game in their last seven at home.
MLB Best Bets for Tigers at Guardians
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball with an almost 15.00 ERA in his last seven starts. Neither team has much to play for, which is why I am focused on the team total in this spot. However, it is so hard to ignore the run line with the Cardinals 2-8 in Wainwright's last 10 starts.
The game total of 10.5 is all you need to know as the combined score in Wainwright's last 10 starts is 81-37 for an average of 8.1-3.7 (total 11.8 runs).
MLB Best Bets Mets at Cardinals
- Mets OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
It is hard to go against a pitcher like Corbin Burnes, but the Dodgers are on one of their epic streaks where they have won 10 in a row outscoring opponents by 39 runs. They are 14-1 in their last 15 games and have averaged 6.6 runs per game. In this nine-game home winning streak they have outscored opponents by 46 runs (61-15, 6.8-1.7) for a 5.1 run differential. Their opponents have not been the strongest, but they have taken the Brewers 7-1 and 6-2 in the first two games of this series.
MLB Best Bets Brewers at Dodgers
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Red Sox/Nationals UNDER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Mets OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
