This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday was a light day for MLB, but now the weekend is here. You can't have a proper summer weekend without a bunch of baseball, and indeed there are 12 MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. At least, on the slate. The Tigers-Guardians game has been removed now that it is a doubleheader. Yes, I am annoyed by that for DFS purposes. Here are my DFS recommendations to help you make your lineup decisions.
Pitching
Pablo Lopez, MIN vs. PIT ($10,600): Over his last eight starts, Lopez has posted a 2.26 ERA, and that's with a bad start in the mix there. Since that outing, he has an 1.45 ERA across his last five starts for good measure. The Pirates, meanwhile, rank 24th in runs scored and have slugged .387 as a squad.
Michael Lorenzen, PHI at WAS ($9,200): Lorenzen is coming off a no-hitter, but he was hot even before that and even before being dealt to the Phillies. Across his last six starts he has an 1.11 ERA, including four starts where he did not allow a run. The Nationals, below average in terms of runs scored, are 29th in terms of hitting homers, and Lorenzen is good at keeping the ball in the park.
Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. MIA ($8,000): Gonsolin's production has been spotty, but at this salary I will take him at home against the Marlins. There's a good chance he picks up a win, as the Dodgers often win thanks in part to an offense that ranks third in runs scored. Miami, meanwhile, ranks 25th in runs scored.
Top Targets
Able to stay healthy, Luis Robert ($5,700) has been a bright spot in a bad season for the White Sox. He's hit .273 with 32 homers and 16 stolen bases, though with only 25 walks, but let's not quibble with a top power hitter is at Coors Field. That's right, Robert and the ChiSox are in Denver, and Peter Lambert has allowed 1.87 homers per nine innings in his career.
He crushed it at Triple-A, and then Nolan Jones ($4,600) joined the Rockies and performed well enough to earn a regular role in the lineup. Jones has slashed .275/.354/.505 with 12 homers and seven stolen bases, powered by an .890 OPS against righties. Michael Kopech's pitching style is particularly ill suited for Coors Field. He has a 6.26 FIP and has allowed 2.01 homers per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
Limited to 75 games by injury, Cedric Mullins ($4,300) still has 10 homers and 15 stolen bases. This year he has an .841 OPS on the road, and since 2021 he has an .839 OPS against righties. Luis Medina, a righty, has a 5.31 ERA and has allowed lefties to hit .285 against him. Oakland has a big ballpark, the better for a speedy player like Mullins.
Not a speedy player, Isaac Paredes ($4,000) gets it done with power. He's hit .251, a major uptick for him, and slugged .493 with 23 homers in 108 games. While he's been much better against his fellow righties this year, he was better against lefties in both 2022 and 2021. Tyler Anderson has collapsed after leaving the Dodgers, and he has a 5.63 road ERA and has allowed a .280 average to righties.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): Fernando Tatis ($6,000), Juan Soto ($5,600), Trent Grisham ($3,200)
The Diamondbacks' collapse is built, on part, on a lack of pitching acumen. Case in point, Pfaadt has been trotted out 11 times and posted a 6.91 ERA while allowing 2.30 homers per nine innings. Righties have hit .299 against him, while the rookie has allowed a .307 average to lefties. Thus, I have two southpaws in this stack.
Somewhat quietly, Tatis has hit .268 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases. Mostly he's worked to re-ingratiate himself to Padres fans, as he has an .888 OPS at home. The lefty Soto has a .404 OBP, putting him on track to have an OBP over .400 for the sixth time in his six MLB seasons. This year he has put up a .963 OPS against right-handed pitchers as well. Grisham has racked up 12 homers and 12 stolen bases. Now, he's actually been better against lefties, but with Pfaadt on the mound, I'll use the southpaw in my lineup to balance out the salary outlay a bit.
Astros vs. Mariners (Bryce Miller): Kyle Tucker ($6,100), Yordan Alvarez ($6,000), Alex Bregman ($5,500)
It has been an up-and-down rookie season for Miller, who has bounced between strong starts and disastrous outings. Notably, though, he has a 5.15 ERA on the road. While he's held his fellow righties to an .193 average, lefties have hit .257 against Miller, so I have two southpaws in this stack.
After having 30 homers and 25 stolen bases in 2022, Tucker has 24 home runs and 24 swiped bags this year. He's also posted a .377 OBP, a personal high, and over the last two weeks he has an 1.040 OPS as well. With a career .587 slugging percentage, Alvarez has hit 21 homers in only 76 games in 2023. Perhaps even more impressive, since 2021 he has a .950 OPS against righties, but also a .941 OPS against lefties. Bregman is a righty, but he notably is consistently better at home and against righties. To that end, since 2021 he has an .836 OPS against righties and an .840 OPS at home.
Phillies at Nationals (Joan Adon): Bryce Harper ($5,500), Kyle Schwarber ($5,000), Bryson Stott ($4,000)
Adon had to leave his last start with cramps in both of his legs, but he's expected to start Friday. That is to the benefit of the Phillies. The righty has a career 6.54 ERA in MLB, and over the last two years he has a 4.64 ERA in Triple-A as well. Philadelphia has a lineup conducive to stacking lefties against a righty, and that's what I'm doing.
While Harper's power has lagged in his return from injury, he's hit .291 with a .379 OBP. I will say that he's slugged .455 against righties this year, and he's slugged .536 over the last 21 days as well. Schwarber is making less contact than usual, which is stark for a career .226 hitter, but the power is still there. The lefty has hit 30 homers after hitting 46 last year. Additionally, since 2021 he has an .879 OPS versus right-handers. As a rookie, Stott was better against his fellow lefties, but in his sophomore campaign he has a .780 OPS against righties and a .774 OPS versus lefties. All in all, he's hit .297 with 11 homers and 23 stolen bases.
