This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the final Sunday of September. The weather in the Northeast got dodgy yesterday for Washington-Atlanta, so it was postponed on Friday and turned into a doubleheader Sunday. That leaves 12 games on the DFS slate starting at 1:05 p.m. EDT or later. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Freddy Peralta, MIL at MIA ($11,200): The Brewers have clinched the NL Central and that means they likely won't ask Peralta to go too late into this game, but there's a good chance he can cruise through six innings against a Marlins team ranked bottom-five in runs scored. And he's also posted a 1.96 ERA over his last 10 outings.
Brandon Williamson, CIN vs. PIT ($7,000): After four straights starts on the road, Williamson is at home where he's compiled a 4.24 ERA. The Pirates are going to end up bottom-10 in offense and their optimal lineup features a lot of lefties. Williamson is a southpaw, which should be to his advantage.
Jordan Wicks, CHC vs. COL ($7,000): Wicks is coming off his first iffy MLB appearance on the road against the Diamondbacks. That's a tricky matchup and he's still at a 2.67 ERA through five starts while only allowing one homer. Given the fact Colorado is below average in runs scored even with its home ballpark, the lineup clearly isn't delivering. And Wicks already handled the Rockies at Coors Field.
In only 112 games, Corey Seager ($6,600) has put up the kind of numbers most dream of over an entire campaign. He's been bolstered by an 1.099 OPS against righties and an 1.107 at home. Bryan Woo has been great against righties as a rookie, but southpaws have hit .295 against.
The king of the three true outcomes Kyle Schwarber ($5,600) is making history. Granted, it's history in the vein of "best season ever by someone who hit under .200", though one can't really complain with 45 homers and over 100 RBI and runs scored. That goes double when the slugging lefty is facing a righty. Jose Butto has only given up 0.28 home runs per nine innings in MLB this season, but recorded a 5.93 ERA in Triple-A partly because he allowed 1.68 long balls per nine.
Though Isaac Paredes ($4,700) is fairly station-to-station on the basepaths, that isn't a concern when he gets to trot around the bags with 29 home runs. He's also been better against his fellow righties this year, but was even better against lefties in 2022. In both of those campaigns with the Rays, Paredes has been better at home and he's currently holding a .908 OPS. Yusei Kikuchi had a nice run of starts earlier this season, but his 5.04 ERA from his last six outings is a reminder of his career 4.69 mark.
Very little went right for the Angels, yet Brandon Drury ($4,400) has delivered 23 homers and 26 doubles in his first season with the club. Joe Ryan was cruising along, and then Atlanta rocked him for five home runs in only three innings. He's never recovered since with a 5.83 ERA across 11 starts.
Stacks to Consider
It's a story we see time and time again. A freshman fireballer hits MLB and racks up the strikeouts, but allows too much contact that tends to do real damage. That's been Bradley's campaign. He's struck out 11.67 batters per nine innings with a 5.36 ERA in part because he's allowed 1.88 homers per nine innings. Righties have also gone .279 against Bradley, so I'm going that way with this stack.
Bichette has been slow to return to form after an injury, though he's still at .303 with 19 homers and an .851 road OPS. Guerrero has racked up 24 homers to go with 92 RBI, but he's been an entirely different hitter away from home where he's slashed .283/.357/.473. Springer has produced his first 20/20 season while adding 23 doubles. Though his splits aren't uneven, his .742 OPS versus righties and his .745 on the road are both superior.
Blach's subpar numbers aren't the product of his home park as he's posted a 6.14 road ERA since joining the Rockies. The southpaw's downfall is being terrible against righties as they've hit .353 against him the last two years. That makes for another all-righty stack.
Hoerner gets things done with his speed going .287 with 42 steals. He's also slugged .422 at home since 2021. It's been a slight step down for Swanson after a big campaign in Atlanta got him a nice deal in free agency with Chicago, though 22 homers with 80 RBI and 77 runs scored will suffice at the shortstop position. And his .813 home OPS has kept new fans happy. When Morel makes contact, it tends to go well by way of his 25 homers while slugging .497 in 101 games. And when he's faced lefties, he's slugged .524.
With their game postponed Saturday, the Diamondbacks will catch Rodon on Sunday. At this point, he seems unlikely to kick his homer-happy pitching in 2023 based on a 6.59 home ERA where he's given up 2.3 homers per nine innings. Rodon has still managed to keep his fellow lefties in check, though righties have batted .253 against.
Marte is a switch-hitter who fares better against lefties with a .941 OPS in those matchups the last couple years. He's also hot as the Diamondbacks fight for the postseason with an 1.019 OPS the last three weeks. Walker likely won't hit 36 homers as he did in 2022, but he's got 31 of those to go with personal highs in RBI, stolen bases, and doubles. His .901 OPS versus southpaws has been key to that. Gurriel has been better at home in his first season with Arizona, but it's not like his previous career .285 average and .468 slugging percentage were due to the D-Backs ballpark. He's also maintained an .823 OPS against lefties and an .877 the last three weeks.