MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Friday, June 21

MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Friday, June 21

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

A 10-game main slate awaits Friday evening, with first pitch coming at 7:05 p.m. ET. Three arms are priced in the five-figure range with three more in the $9,000 tier, representing 30 percent of our pitching options, while we don't currently have a listed option for Toronto. Run totals are their typical low selves. Colorado-Washington, unsurprisingly, leads the way at 11.0 and Boston-Cincinnati comes in second at 9.0, with everything else checking in lower. Three games currently sit at just 7.5 runs, so we may be able to find some pitching value.

Overall, the weather looks to have minimal to no effect on the slate. Slight rain chances are there for Yankees-Braves. Wind looks minimal everywhere with the possible exception of Los Angeles, where we might get a slight boost.

Pitching

George Kirby, SEA at MIA ($9,800): Per usual, there's nothing wrong with the higher-priced options, but Kirby and Carlos Rodon ($9,500) is where I prefer to live atop this pitching slate for safety, potential upside and a minor price break. And with Kirby, it's more mitigating risk than chasing an elite upside, though both exist simply because the Marlins stink. Miami enters Friday with a .289 wOBA, 85 wRC+ and .127 ISO off right-handers. Kirby counters with three quality starts in his last four, and the outlier still saw him earn 42 fantasy points in five innings of work. He's my clear preferred cash game target with other options around him possibly better suited for GPPs thanks to lower roster percentages.

Andrew Abbott, CIN vs. BOS ($8,100): Truth be told, I'm not in love with the middle tier of this pitching slate. The high expected run total in this game should certainly give us pause. But the matchup statistically looks promising. Boston is a left-handed heavy lineup that fans 28.1 percent of the time off southpaws. Abbott enters Friday allowing a .283 wOBA and .633 OPS to same-handed bats. He's only fanning 7.3 per nine, capping his ceiling some, but that's worked into the price and it could play up in this matchup. Abbott has earned 30+ fantasy points in four of his last six.

Trevor Rogers, MIA vs. SEA ($6,700): This is another spot where we're trusting the matchup more than the actual player. Seattle has shown signs of life but still comes into Friday with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate off lefties while posting a .294 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Rogers has walk issues and doesn't strike out a plethora of opponents, but for this price, we may not need him to. And perhaps he's been a touch unlucky. His 5.09 ERA comes with a slightly lower 4.47 xFIP and the .329 BABIP allowed should regress. Rogers is a ground ball pitcher (48.0 percent) who's curiously allowed homers on 12.9 percent of the flyballs he surrenders. He enters Friday in decent enough form, having allowed eight runs across his last four starts, spanning 23.1 frames.

Top Targets

This starts with what pieces of the Dodgers lineup you want or can afford against Patrick Sandoval, but I wouldn't go overboard as Sandoval has a 5.24 ERA but only a 3.87 xFIP. Freddie Freeman ($3,900) and/or Will Smith ($3,600) offer fair entry prices for this offense.

Who knows what to expect from Astros starter Jake Bloss, who's making his debut after earning promotion from Double-A where he was dominant. Gunnar Henderson ($4,300) is riding a 13-game hitting streak and seems like a set-it-and-forget-about-it option.

We've seen how streaky Fernando Tatis ($3,600) can be, posting a 17-game hitting streak in late May/early June and then going 3-for-23 in his next seven games. He went 4-for-5 last night and the price has fallen substantially, making me interested in seeing if he's about to warm up again.

Bargain Bats

It's always easy to look to Coors Field for offense, so why would Friday be an exception? Rockies starter Dakota Hudson has a 7.16 ERA at home, allowing a .473 wOBA and 1.094 OPS to lefties. Nationals bats are priced up, but we can still look towards Jesse Winker ($3,500) or Luis Garcia ($3,400) for production. Winker has homered in consecutive outings while Garcia is ice cold, perhaps making him overlooked. We can potentially game stack here as well, with Colorado's Hunter Goodman ($3,000) offering flexibility positionally and tremendous splits off lefties (.431 wOBA, 168 wRC, .462 ISO) and Jacob Stallings ($2,900) sitting with a .500 wOBA, 215 wRC+ and .406 ISO.

I've been sucked in far too many times by the Blue Jays' struggling offense, so I'll refrain from suggesting a stack here. However, Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco is allowing a .416 wOBA at home to lefties and a .448 wOBA to righties, so how can we completely ignore Toronto? Vladimir Guerrero ($3,100) screams play me at this price. We'll need to see how the lineup shakes out before penciling in other one-off options. But Addison Barger ($2,100) is 6-for-14 across his last four, comes with position flexibility and is dirt cheap. Orelvis Martinez ($2,300) seems to have a less certain role, but power upside if he starts.

Stacks to Consider

Twins vs. Joey Estes (Athletics): Max Kepler ($3,100), Carlos Santana ($3,000), Trevor Larnach ($2,900)

Estes has been far better at home, but he's still allowing a .424 wOBA and 1.010 OPS to lefties overall. This is certainly a less-than-traditional stack given the expected batting order, but it offers upside at fair prices where we can get peripheral production around the Twins' big two of Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa. Perhaps it's better served as a one-off piece of a mini stack rather than a full-bore loading up, as we could only get two at-bats off Estes, but the matchup is favorable. In full disclosure, these three aren't elite off righties, though all are at least above average with Kepler's 108 wRC+ the worst of the group. Estes has allowed nine runs and 16 hits across his last 7.2 innings.

Rangers vs. Brady Singer (Royals): Corey Seager ($3,500), Josh Smith ($2,900), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,800)

Singer has allowed 11 runs and 21 hits across his last three starts, spanning 15.1 innings. There are a couple of ways to attack him here. Given the price points, going with Seager, Marcus Semien ($3,600) and Adolis Garcia ($3,400) would be traditional and affordable. But Singer is allowing a .387 wOBA and .898 OPS to lefties against .238/.528 to righties, so I'll again target opposite-handed hitters in this spot. Smith offers position flexibility and is in solid form, while Lowe has taken Singer deep once in 11 at-bats. They're cheap and should hit in the top/middle of the order and around Semien and Garcia, giving us exposure.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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