Arizona will look to steal a game on the road and draw even in the NLCS in Tuesday's Game 2. Philadelphia will roll with Aaron Nola on the mound, while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly. Both have pitched well down the stretch, so we appear to have no clear advantage for the bats. Roster choices come down to backing those that continue to produce, or making a gut call on these showdown slates. We've got a low projected run total of 7.5 or 8 depending on where you look. Weather does not look to be a factor, with next to no chance of rain and no wind either.
MVP
Trea Turner, PHI vs. ARI ($8,500): Everyone is going to be on the red-hot Bryce Harper, and that alone is enough reason to differentiate. That Harper is 1-for-5 off Kelly in his career, and Turner is 9-for-21 (.429) with a 1.071 OPS, is further reason to not go full chalk. Turner has an 11-game hitting streak heading into Tuesday, and we know he's a stolen base threat who can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways. Stable floor, elite ceiling.
Star
Gabriel Moreno, ARI at PHI ($5,500): My preferred strategy most nights is to accept that we can't miss at these multiplier lineup spots, but no one is playing cash games in the playoffs, and we're forced to take shots as a result. Moreno has three homers in the postseason, hits in a run-producing spot in the order and is a bargain given his form and opportunity. BvP is a dangerous thing to target in low samples, but he's also 2-for-3 off Nola.
Utility
Nick Castellanos, PHI vs. ARI ($7,000): There's simply no fading Castellanos on a showdown slate. He's homered five times in his last three games, and comes at an an average price point for a showdown. He's 0-for-3 with two strikeouts off Kelly, not a sample size we should care about, but it's enough to warrant not putting him in a premium lineup spot when everyone else will. He has only three non-home run hits in the postseason, so play him for high roster percentages, but don't chase the power.
J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. ARI ($6,000): Philadelphia's lineup depth offers a plethora of selections to help round out builds Tuesday. Realmuto has seven hits and two homers in seven postseason games this season, making for a nice mid-tier option that should have multiple shots at driving in a run. He's a decent 3-for-9 with a homer off Kelly, to boot.
Alek Thomas, ARI at PHI ($5,000): Thomas drove in a run without a hit last night, giving him three RBI in six postseason games. That's a ratio we should be fine with at this price point. Everyone is going to be Philly-heavy in their builds, but the Diamondbacks have been feisty and Thomas is a part of that. His salary is low enough that it's essentially a punt, which at worst allows more spending on Philly bats. He's got a double off Nola in two at-bats.
