High stakes baseball! I'm hyped, and I hope you are as well. We have Game 3 action from the National League, but also there's a Game 4 on the American League side. First pitch is at 5:07 p.m. EDT. These are my DFS lineup recommendations for you.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. ATL ($10,100): A big part of my recommendation of Nola is that he is the pitcher who, to me, has the best chance of actually going five innings Wednesday and qualifying for a win. Plus, he had a 3.29 ERA at home. Nola has a career 3.33 FIP, and while Atlanta is not an easy matchup, who is at this point in the postseason?
Top Target
If the Dodgers are going to avoid elimination, it would help if Freddie Freeman ($4,100) delivered. To be fair, he did that time and time again during the regular season. After all, he's a guy who hit .331 and tallied 59 doubles. If you needed any more cajoling, the lefty had an 1.062 OPS on the road. Oh, and Brandon Pfaadt had a 6.46 ERA at home. If Freeman can't do some thumping in this one though, all hope may be lost.
Bargain Bat
Though Willi Castro (2,800) is a switch hitter, he had an .803 OPS against righties, plus an .831 OPS at home. As a speedy player, his acumen as a base stealer is more conducive against righties. Jose Urquidy has been named as the starter for Game 4 for the Astros. He allowed a .292 batting average to righties this year.
Stack to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (Lance Lynn): Corbin Carroll ($4,500), Ketel Marte ($3,600), Alek Thomas ($2,900)
The Dodgers will likely need to rack up the runs to avoid elimination with Lynn on the mound. I'm stacking Diamondbacks because Lynn allowed 2.16 home runs per nine innings this season, and is on a seven-game streak of allowing at least one homer. Since lefties hit .290 against him, I have three Diamondbacks who can hit southpaw.
Carroll posting an .868 OPS with 25 homers and 54 stolen bases as a rookie is a big reason why the Diamondbacks are here right now. Of course, he's a lefty, so it isn't surprising he had a .921 OPS versus righties. On top of that, he had an .902 OPS at home. Marte is a switch hitter, and while he was better against lefties he managed an .828 OPS versus righties, which is also quite good. Given that he had an .888 OPS at home, and given Lynn's struggles, I'll still happily stack him. Thomas is not on the same level offensively, but he's viable in this circumstance. He had a .701 OPS against right handers and a .747 OPS at home.
