This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Monday, June 17
There's a typical, smaller slate of games today with only nine games. Interestingly, there's only three games in two weeks (July 1) and then the All-Star break is two weeks after that on July 15. Let's take a look at tonight's games.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins Best Bets
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs +114 (DraftKings)
Under 7.5 Runs -125 (BetRivers)
Braxton Garrett has been pretty bad this season with a 6.10 ERA, and while it's a small sample (12.1 innings), he has an 11.68 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP at home. This would be less of a concern, but he had a 4.46 ERA at home last season as opposed to only a 2.85 ERA on the road. Sonny Gray has been outstanding for the Cardinals this season, with a 3.01 ERA and a matching 1.03 WHIP. He's also struck out 91 batters in only 68.2 innings and Miami has the third-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season (.289). I'd also consider the under in this game (7.5 Runs, -125 BetRivers) as well as I think this ends up being something like a 3-1 or 4-2 game. St. Louis only has a .273 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season suggesting a low-scoring affair
MLB Picks for St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs +114 (DraftKings)
Under 7.5 Runs -125 (BetRivers)
New York Mets at Texas Rangers Best Bets
J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 RBI +150 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
If it isn't broke, don't fix it. Martinez comes into tonight's game on fire, driving in at least one run in five straight games and seven of his last eight. Adding to the case for him getting another RBI gets stronger looking at his track record against Jon Gray. Martinez has two home runs in six plate appearances against Gray, driving in four runs. In fact, if you look at Martinez's schedule over the next week, it's filled with favorable batter vs. pitcher matchups. Martinez has a total of five home runs against Andrew Heaney, Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.
MLB Pick for New York Mets at Texas Rangers
J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 RBI +150 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
Colorado Rockies Over 5.5 Runs +106 (FanDuel)
This game has an over/under of 12.5 on some sites and the weather should be ideal for hitting, with the temperature hitting 92 degrees. James Paxton probably has been lucky this season, posting a 3.92 ERA considering he has a 5.16 FIP. His swinging strike percentage is down to 7.6 percent this season after posting six straight years of over 12 percent. Paxton's BB/9 rate is a whopping 4.83, which suggests the Rockies should be able to put runners on base if they're patient. The Rockies also have the third-best home wOBA against left-handed pitching (.357). Jacob Stallings (likely hitting cleanup) has a 1.250 OPS against southpaws this season while Hunter Goodman has a 1.211 mark if you're looking to take batter props for the Rockies. The Rockies' over for team runs is my favorite wager of the day.
MLB Pick for Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies Over 5.5 Runs +106 (FanDuel)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs +114 (DraftKings)
- Under 7.5 Runs -125 (BetRivers)
- J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 RBI +150 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
- Colorado Rockies Over 5.5 Runs +106 (FanDuel)
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