This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Tonight: Free Expert MLB Bets for October 13
With the Yankees/Guardians game postponed due to rain, I will focus on the Astros/Mariners game, offering some additional bets.
Last Article's Record: 3-0 +3.14 units
Season Record: 205-186-5 +28.07 units
Seattle Mariners 
at Houston Astros 
I went against Luis Castillo in Game 1 of the Wild Card round at Toronto and got burned, but I just can't ignore his home/road splits, including a 4.81 ERA, 1.43 WHIP in six starts away from home since August 1. The opposition in those 6 starts wasn't that great, with games in Kansas City, Oakland (twice), Cleveland, the Bronx and Anaheim. The Astros have scored 4.8 runs per game in their last 19 home games at home and have the league's second-best strikeout rate.
If Castillo gets into a situation where he can't strikeout batters and is allowing contact, the Astros can get to him. The Astros have averaged 6.7 strikeouts in the 19-game sample at home above. If you take 6.7 strikeouts per game and assume you Castillo pitches approximately 60 percent of the game (just over 5.1 innings), you get 4.02 projected strikeouts for the Seattle righty. Even if you give him an extra strikeout, he'll still go under this total, and that's assuming he pitches into the middle of the sixth inning. Castillo averaged 5.8 strikeouts in his six road starts since August 1.
MLB Best Bets for Mariners at Astros
- Luis Castillo UNDER 5.5 strikeouts for 1.4 RW buck (FanDuel -140)
- Astros OVER 3.5 runs for 1.14 RW buck (FanDuel -114)
- Astros -0.5 runs F5 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Luis Castillo UNDER 5.5 strikeouts for 1.4 RW buck (FanDuel -140)
- Astros OVER 3.5 runs for 1.14 RW buck (FanDuel -114)
- Astros -0.5 runs F5 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)
Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available MLB player props, so we have an easy-to-use MLB odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups page, MLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.
