This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Tonight: MLB Player Props and Picks for Friday, September 30
Last Article's Record: 2-1 +1.00 units
Season Record:197-175-5 +33.23 units
Baltimore Orioles 
at New York Yankees 
The Orioles have had a great season but they have stumbled in the month of September while the Yankees are surging. The Orioles have been much better at home, as have the Yankees, so we get a slumping team and two sides of a home/road split favoring the New York team.
Add in we get plus money on the run line with the home favorite and Domingo German has pitched decently since July 27 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While Jordan Lyles has a 4.71 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Yankees and a 4.82 ERA in his last 7 starts overall.
This feels like stealing money at this price, as the moneyline is -169, but my true money line is more in the -240 range.
MLB Best Bets for Orioles at Yankees
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
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Minnesota Twins 
at Detroit Tigers 
We have a similar spot with the Twins here at PLUS money on the run line just like the Yankees. I like Joe Ryan, who has great history against the Tigers this year with a 1.02 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts to 2 walks in 17.2 innings. Tyler Alexander has a 5.75 ERA in his last seven starts and the Tigers have been outscored in the season series 70-48 (16 games). Add in how atrocious the Tigers have been all year against right-handed pitching and you have a Twins RL play.
MLB Best Bets for Team A at Team B
- Twins -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
I love divisional matchups as we get a bigger sample size and usually some strong data points. The Cardinals are 22-10 against the Pirates over the last two seasons. In 13 games this year, the Cardinals are 10-3 against the Pirates outscoring them 83-51 (6.4-3.6). I am not sure why this total is just 7 runs but it is heavily skewed towards the recency bias on the Cardinals' lack of offense and the name value of Jack Flaherty.
But Flaherty has a 4.97 ERA over his last seven starts and in his two starts against the Pirates he has allowed six runs in just eight innings. Johan Oviedo has a 3.90 ERA in his last seven starts and gets away with a high walk rate by not allowing any hits. The bottom line for me is this total is just way too low and I'm playing the number.
MLB Best Bets for Pirates at Cardinals
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 7 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings -120)
Miami Marlins 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
I am about to do something that I never thought I would do. Take the Marlins OVER and in a game with a total of 6 runs. Yes, folks the numbers never lie and they are speaking to me like a OUIJA board did when you were a kid.
The Marlins have actually been hitting lately to the tune of .259 batting average over the last 14 days with an average of about 4 runs per game. If you noticed, I have not taken them UNDER their team total lately either. Corbin Burnes has struggled in his last seven starts with a 5.31 ERA.
I just do not think this game warranted a total of 6 when you look at Sandy Alcantara's home/road splits and Burnes' recent performance, but I want to hedge here and just look at the Burnes/Marlins piece of this game.
MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Brewers
- Corbin Burnes OVER 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yankees -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
- Twins -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 7 for 1.2 RW buck (DraftKings -120)
- Corbin Burnes OVER 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)
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