MLB Picks Today: MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday, September 30

MLB Picks Today: MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday, September 30

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Tonight: MLB Player Props and Picks for Friday, September 30

Last Article's Record: 2-1 +1.00 units

Season Record:197-175-5 +33.23 units

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

The Orioles have had a great season but they have stumbled in the month of September while the Yankees are surging. The Orioles have been much better at home, as have the Yankees, so we get a slumping team and two sides of a home/road split favoring the New York team. 

Add in we get plus money on the run line with the home favorite and Domingo German has pitched decently since July 27 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While Jordan Lyles has a 4.71 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Yankees and a 4.82 ERA in his last 7 starts overall. 

This feels like stealing money at this price, as the moneyline is -169, but my true money line is more in the -240 range. 

MLB Best Bets for Orioles at Yankees 

  • Yankees -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)

If you're not yet signed up at FanDuel Sportsbook, use RotoWire's FanDuel Promo Code for a $1,000 no-sweat first bet.

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

We have a similar spot with the Twins here at PLUS money on the run line just like the Yankees. I like Joe Ryan, who has great history against the Tigers this year with a 1.02 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts to 2 walks in 17.2 innings. Tyler Alexander has a 5.75 ERA in his last seven starts and the Tigers have been outscored in the season series 70-48 (16 games).  Add in how atrocious the Tigers have been all year against right-handed pitching and you have a Twins RL play. 

MLB Best Bets for Team A at Team B 

  • Twins -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

I love divisional matchups as we get a bigger sample size and usually some strong data points. The Cardinals are 22-10 against the Pirates over the last two seasons. In 13 games this year, the Cardinals are 10-3 against the Pirates outscoring them 83-51 (6.4-3.6). I am not sure why this total is just 7 runs but it is heavily skewed towards the recency bias on the Cardinals' lack of offense and the name value of Jack Flaherty

But Flaherty has a 4.97 ERA over his last seven starts and in his two starts against the Pirates he has allowed six runs in just eight innings. Johan Oviedo has a 3.90 ERA in his last seven starts and gets away with a high walk rate by not allowing any hits. The bottom line for me is this total is just way too low and I'm playing the number. 

MLB Best Bets for Pirates at Cardinals

  • Pirates/Cardinals OVER 7 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings -120)

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

I am about to do something that I never thought I would do. Take the Marlins OVER and in a game with a total of 6 runs. Yes, folks the numbers never lie and they are speaking to me like a OUIJA board did when you were a kid. 

The Marlins have actually been hitting lately to the tune of .259 batting average over the last 14 days with an average of about 4 runs per game. If you noticed, I have not taken them UNDER their team total lately either. Corbin Burnes has struggled in his last seven starts with a 5.31 ERA. 

I just do not think this game warranted a total of 6 when you look at Sandy Alcantara's home/road splits and Burnes' recent performance, but I want to hedge here and just look at the Burnes/Marlins piece of this game. 

MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Brewers

  • Corbin Burnes OVER 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Yankees -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
  • Twins -1.5 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +122)
  • Pirates/Cardinals OVER 7 for 1.2 RW buck (DraftKings -120)
  • Corbin Burnes OVER 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +110)

Sign up at Caesars Sportsbook using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your $1,250 First Bet on Caesars plus tier and reward credits.

Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available MLB player props, so we have an easy-to-use MLB odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.

Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups pageMLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
The Z Files: OK, I'm SOLD
The Z Files: OK, I'm SOLD
Collette Calls: Beltway Pitching Projects
Collette Calls: Beltway Pitching Projects
MLB Dynasty Rankings + 10 Rookies for 2023
MLB Dynasty Rankings + 10 Rookies for 2023
The Z Files: Projections and the New Rules
The Z Files: Projections and the New Rules
Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Where Will Judge Sign?
Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Where Will Judge Sign?
MLB World Series Game 6 Picks: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, November 5
MLB World Series Game 6 Picks: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, November 5