This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The MLB calendar has flipped into June, and there are a plethora of exciting divisional races involving many teams. The St. Louis Cardinals have the worst record in the National League but trail the Central Division-leading Milwaukee Brewers by only 6.5 games. In fact, in all three divisions in the NL, the last-place team trails the division leader by fewer than 10 games. The same cannot be said in the American League, as the worst team in each division trails by at least 10 games. Each division leader is in a hotly contested race, leading by four or fewer games in the standings.
Can the Miami Marlins Take over the NL East Division Lead?
The Miami Marlins is 31-28 and have made $700 in profits averaging a +104 wager, 24-35 on the run line losing $1400 by averaging a –117 wager, and 31-26-2 Under making $425 betting the Under on the season. The Marlins are playing the worst team in MLB currently in the Oakland Athletics, who have need 60 games just to earn 12 wins. This season, the second longest number of games needed to win 12 games is the Kansas City Royals with 44 games. In fact, over the past 20 seasons, the next worst start to a season to earn 12 wins was the Royals in 2006, who need 50 games.
Prior to this series against the Marlins, the A's won the first two games of a three-game series against the NL East Division-leading Atlanta Braves but have been outscored 8-2 in the first two games of this series. The two wins against the Braves mark the longest win streak for the A's this season.
A Situational Super System Betting on Favorites
There are many statistical aberrations each MLB season that move the market and value of the teams that offer highly profitable betting opportunities. The A's have been outscored by 210 runs on the season, scoring an anemic 201 runs while allowing 411 runs. The following betting system exploits specific opportunities for betting against these teams in games played in June.
The system supports bets on the Overs and has earned a 10-4-1 record for 71.4 percent winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Over with a team that is favored by no more than –195 on the moneyline against a foe that has been outscored by 150 or more runs with the game played in the month of June.
What's Wrong With Sandy Alcantara?
The Marlins will have their ace, Sandy Alcantara, on the hill, and he has struggled mightily this season. He threw an enormous number of pitches over the past two seasons and has the most complete games of any other starter in MLB. He has posted a 2-5 record in 11 starts with a terrible 5.06 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, walking 25 batters and striking out 60 across 69.1 innings of work. Since pitching a complete game shutout against Minnesota on April 4, he has allowed at least two earned runs in nine consecutive starts.
Alcantara maintains an electric fastball that ranks in the 95th percentile of all starters, but the movement and spin rates are down this season. This is reflected in the fact that he is allowing a 41 percent hard-hit rate, his highest since his rookie season. Don't ever forget that the A's (despite having just 12 wins) have MLB-caliber players on their roster. They would not be at this level or even Triple-A ball if they weren't talented players, so I do see the A's scoring a few runs today facing Alcantara.
Paul Blackburn will be on the hill for the A's, making his second start of the season. He was the starting pitcher in the A's 7-2 win over the Braves. His fastball averages 91 mph, and he has an array of other pitches that keep batters on their toes. My take is to watch the first inning or two and see if the Marlins are looking to take his offerings to the opposite field. If they are, and there's no score at the end of the first inning, then adding an additional bet on the Over using the moneyline is an exceptional opportunity.
The Betting Strategy for this Game
My plan is to bet 60 percent preflop Over the posted total, currently offered at 7.5 runs (-115) by FanDuel. If the first inning is scoreless, the total will drop to 7 or preferably 6.5 runs. I will add 20 percent more at a price of 6.5 runs. Then if the scoring continues to be anemic, we will get a chance to bet Over 5.5 runs at some point during the first five innings. If the scoring erupts, then we will not get the 20 percent remaining bet placed, but we will have 80 percent placed at exceptional price levels.
Player Props I am Betting Pizza Money On
When I mention a pizza money bet, it is just that: betting the cost of a single pizza — $15 to $25 depending on how toppings you may like on your pizza. The point is that these are small bets, but ones that will add to your total profits over the course of the season.
Bet Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +127 at Caesars
Bet Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits +150 at DraftKings
Bet Jesus Sanchez to hit a home run +475 at DraftKings
Bet A's Seth Brown to record an RBI +185 at BetRivers