This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Player Props for Phillies-Astros Game 1
Last Article's Record: 0-4 -3.3 units
Season Record: 216-204-6 +25.01 units
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Philadelphia Phillies 
at Houston Astros 
With almost a full week of rest for both teams, we finally get Game 1 of the 2022 World Series with Aaron Nola vs. Justin Verlander. The Astros come in on a 9-game win streak including two games against these same Phillies at the end of the regular season. The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 games, but only scored 5 runs in the 3-game series against the Astros at the end of the season.
I hate laying -1.5 runs even with the Astros at home, but it's Aaron Nola and he could easily keep this within a 1-run game especially because I think it will be lower scoring. So, I will look at getting the Astros to just have the lead after 5 innings. A solo homer can make it happen or a 2-0, 2-1 type of outcome is more than reasonable.
As I mentioned earlier, the Phillies only scored 5 runs in 3 games in Houston and with a fully rested pitching staff I think the Astros continue to prevent runs at home. I will piggyback on this with a correlation play of Verlander going 6 innings (over 17.5 outs). It is hard to envision how he doesn't go at least 6 innings unless he just gets completely shelled.
MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Phillies at Astros
- Astros -0.5 F5 for 1.06 RW buck (FanDuel -106)
- Phillies UNDER 1.5 runs F5 for 1.45 RW buck (DraftKings -145)
- Justin Verlander OVER 17.5 outs for 1.20 RW buck (DraftKings -120)
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