This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Friday, July 7
Season: 55-63 -28.23 units
Prior Article: 3-1 +1.57 units
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Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays
The Braves have been a road dog just eight times, going 6-2, while the Rays are coming back to earth a bit going 4-6, 9-11, and 16-14 over their last 10/20/30 games. The Braves run since June is well documented at 25-5 last 30. I was shocked the Braves were not favorites here by at least -130 with Charlie Morton against Tyler Glasnow.
Glasnow has settled down some after a rough start, but look at the opponents (Mariners, Royals) who are two of the bottom-ranked offensive teams. Because of the ballpark, I am going to shy away from the traditional Braves -1.5 and OVER their team run total.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Rays
- Braves ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We get a depressed total with two decent starting pitchers, but Corbin Burnes has a 4.27 ERA at home and can be had by a Reds team that is averaging 6.11 runs per game over the last 30 days.
The Reds have gone over 4 or more runs in 23 out of their last 29 games.
MLB Best Bets for Reds at Brewers
- Reds OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Two of the hottest teams in baseball meet in Miami on Friday night, but there is a significant difference in starting pitching with Zack Wheeler against Sandy Alcantara. Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball especially when taking into account Statcast data, while Alcantara has struggled most of the season.
Alcantara has allowed at least four earned runs in 5 out of his last 7 starts, and the ballpark factor for Wheeler gets a significant bump even against this hot Marlins lineup. The Phillies smashed him on April 10th for nine earned runs and 10 hits over 4.0 innings.
There is just too much of a difference between pitchers as both teams have been hot over the last 4-6 weeks.
MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Marlins
- Phillies for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
This is a system play that I executed on with Pirates/Dodgers on Wednesday night and they won outright. Now we get the A's against the Red Sox with Boston a whopping -240 favorite at home for a BULLPEN game. The A's are 13-13 over their last 26, but are still being priced as the worst team in baseball.
Give me +1.5 runs at plus / even money against a team in the Red Sox that is just 5-5 last 10, 15-15 last 30. The Red Sox bullpen is gassed because of all the injuries to the starting rotation and the OVER is looking very much in play also, but just the A's here.
MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Red Sox
- Athletics +1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Braves ML (-110 at DraftKings)
- Reds OVER 3.5 runs (-120 at DraftKings)
- Philies ML (-135 at DraftKings)
- A's +1.5 (+1.5 at DraftKings)