Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL West

With pitchers and catchers reporting, baseball season is finally upon us, and cross your fingers, it looks like an interesting season with some pretty wild rule changes! For most leagues, draft day is on the horizon, and "wait until next year" is now. That's okay. We'll be ready. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2023 season. Things will surely change as Spring Training progresses, but we handle those changes on the fly. Remember, Musings is intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

American League West

Houston Astros – You might think the Astros' pitching staff is shadow of its former self. To name just a few recent standouts, Gerrit Cole wears pinstripes now, Zack Greinke is back home in Kansas City, and Justin Verlander is also gone. That's a lot of quality innings to try and replace. However, I wouldn't run up any white flags. They aren't completely without quality. They will be led by a couple fairly well-regarded young arms. Framber Valdez, the only lefty in the group, tossed hints that he could be a very useful starter in the rotation. He just needed better command and more consistent secondary stuff to truly take the next step. He achieved both, and a breakout year was the result. Cristian Javier is right behind him. Both have very good stuff, and they can throw strikes. I wouldn't be surprised to see even better from them this season. I have always liked Lance McCullers, but he missed all of 2019 (Tommy John surgery) and tossed just 55 innings in 2020. He served up a huge season in 2021 but was hurt again for most of 2022. Durability has never been prominent on his resume. Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are competent and will get regular turns, too. On a lesser squad they would be higher on the food chain. And, it could get even better. Hunter Brown has all the tools and just needs an open spot in the rotation. Then there's Forrest Whitley. Remember him? He's got it all. Big arm, lively fastball, very good slider and curve, and the real gem; an exceptional change, but he is wildly inconsistent with his whole repertoire, and he is currently a health risk with a balky shoulder.

The Astros bullpen is also top shelf with exceptional depth. Ryan Pressly was an exceptional set-up man and never missed a beat when asked to handle the ninth inning. He just needs to stay healthy. Rafael Montero looks like he has found consistency and should serve as the main set-up guy and Pressly's insurance policy. Hector Neris (just keep him away from the ninth inning) should combine with Ryne Stanek in secondary set-up roles. Both are experienced and capable bridge-builders.

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to own: Ride with Valdez. He could make an even bigger splash.

He'll likely be overpriced: I like McCullers when healthy, but that's no guarantee.

Best of the bullpen: Pressly is easily the best of a pretty solid group.

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels are loaded in the field and at the plate with stars like Mike Trout, yet he has no World Series ring to show for it. You can add guys like Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward and DH Shohei Ohtani, yet they haven't challenged for a playoff spot for years. It's pretty simple. The Angels' pitching of late has been awful. Their No. 1 starter, without question, is Ohtani, He missed 2019, at least the pitching part, recovering from Tommy John surgery. He tossed just a couple innings in 2020. He was solid in 2021 and stepped into the elite class last season when the team took the gloves off. When he's on the hill he's a top 10 starter, but he can't be expected to toss 200 innings. That leaves the necessary heavy workload to others, but they have yet to find the quality innings they need. Patrick Sandoval has shown improvement, but he's still a mid-rotation guy. They signed free agent Tyler Anderson in the offseason. He's coming off a career year with the Dodgers, but I'm not ready to aggressively pursue him on draft day. He showed he is capable of stringing together some good innings, but he can also be very mediocre. I do like the future of youngster Reid Detmers. He flashes some pretty good stuff at times, but I'm not convinced he is ready to step into a leadership role. The next spots belong to Jose Suarez and a sometimes-capable young arm in Griffin Canning but has suffered from elbow and back issues that put the high-risk label on him. I don't want to leave one guy off the radar. He's very frequently hurt, but Chris Rodriguez could move right in behind Ohtani if he ever gets healthy. He missed all of 2022 but is expected to be ready for spring training. If you like long-shots, go for it. Drafting an Angels' starter is not for the faint of heart. Maybe you'll get lucky, but a contingency plan is a good idea.

For the past few seasons, the Angels' shaky starting pitchers have turned the game over to an equally shaky bullpen. They have a few semi-capable middle relievers like Aaron Loup, Jimmy Herget and Jose Quijada, and Ryan Tepera (when healthy) more or less fits as a set-up guy, but they don't really have a proven closer … unless. They brought in Carlos Estevez in the offseason. He did some closing in Colorado, and he has the arm to finish games if he can develop more consistency.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to own: Ohtani has the highest ceiling by far, but there will be restrictions.

He'll likely be overpriced: I don't think Anderson will justify his likely price tag.

Best of the bullpen: I'm possibly interested in taking a flyer on Estevez.

Oakland A's – The first two teams we looked at in this division offered a lot of promise or a lot of question marks, but now that we move on to Oakland, things seem to get a bit more predictable. They have a collection of back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers, led by 29-year-old Paul Blackburn. He has a modest arm and modest command. I'll pass. Maybe the A's pitcher to roster is Shintaro Fujinami? Once upon a time he was included in conversations with guys like Ohtani, but his good stuff was generally erratic. If he can throw strikes, he would lead this staff, but that's a very big if. So the second pitcher I list is a Japanese pitcher who struggles to throw strikes. That's not very promising. I actually like Kyle Muller a little bit. He comes over from Atlanta, but his brief trials have not been the best. He did post solid Triple-A numbers including a lot of strikeouts so he is a possibility. After that, the cupboard is pretty bare. I was preparing to offer some hope in  A.J. Puk, but he's gone now, too, in a deal with Florida, while other back-end options like Ken Waldichuk and Drew Rucinski would probably have a hard time cracking almost any MLB rotations. There is one more arm of note, albeit more of a dynasty consideration. Gunnar Hoglund was a first-round draft choice in 2021 but injuries have limited him to just eight professional innings.

The A's once featured Liam Hendriks as their closer. No more. And there is nobody in this pen to confuse with Hendriks. If I had to name a likely closer, I guess I'd toss Domingo Acevedo's name into the mix, just ahead of veteran Trevor May, but to be honest this has the makings of a committee. Dany Jimenez actually did some closing for Oakland last year and he did reasonably well at times, but he and Zach Jackson and Sam Moll – who are all needed for there to be any hope of an effective bullpen – are all attempting to return from shoulder injuries that cut their 2022 seasons short.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to own: I might be tempted to take a flyer on Fujinami or maybe Muller.

He'll likely be overpriced: Blackburn doesn't provide enough upside in my eyes.

Best of the bullpen: Not attempting to feign optimism, but maybe Acevedo or Jimenez.

Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are quietly but steadily building a very strong, contending team. They might not quite be there, but it's time to start looking at the pieces. Just a couple short years ago, Marco Gonzales was at the top of the rotation, but now he's their No. 5. Gonzalez was not a true No. 1, but the soft-tosser is a more than competent five. Last year they got Luis Castillo (he's a legit No. 1) to go with lefty fireballer Robbie Ray (he easily has ace stuff, too, but lacks consistency). His fastball velocity is eye-popping, and if opposing managers are leery of adding him because of that inconsistency, I'll take a shot. Two kids made a huge impact last year and another is on the way. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert were major contributors in 2022, but I still see room to grow in both. I give a very slight edge to Kirby based primarily on his command, but he'll need more from his secondary stuff to reach his full potential. The kid on the way is Emerson Hancock who pitched well in Double-A last year. He just needs rotation room, but Chris Flexen (and Gonzalez) are in the way. Once Hancock earns a starting spot, if Castillo, Ray, Kirby and Gilbert even approach their collective ceilings, the Mariners will be a serious threat in the AL West.

The bullpen probably has slightly more to prove than the rotation. That said, I'm about to name my favorite unconfirmed closer for 2023. Paul Sewald, when healthy, did a steady job in 2022, but every time I watch him, I am more convinced the closer gig will belong to Andres Munoz sooner rather than later. His stuff is pure filth. That would bump Sewald into an ideal set-up role with Diego Castillo and Trevor Gott, along with lefty Gabe Speier. And, that doesn't lock Matt Brash into a firm role, and I love his stuff.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to own: their starters are all appealing but take a shot on Ray being sharp.

He'll likely be overpriced: probably Gonzalez because I want any of the others.

Best of the bullpen: Munoz is a future fireman all-star, and you won't be waiting long.

Texas Rangers – We conclude our assessment of preseason pitching in the AL West with the Texas Rangers. And they will enter the season with a rotation full of question marks. My best recommendation would be to pay very close attention to usage of all their arms this spring. The staff includes almost no one from just a couple seasons ago. I guess you could say that's the good news, but these guys are inconsistent to say the least. Let's start with Jacob deGrom. When he's on the mound he's the best in the game. But he hasn't broken 100 innings in four years. How about Nathan Eovaldi? He's not bad, but he has just one injury-free season on his resume the past six years. Next up is Jon Gray. I'm actually somewhat encouraged here. He escaped Colorado and posted decent numbers last year. He could build on that. Andrew Heaney is an interesting case. He added a very useful slider in 2022, but he was again unable to stay healthy, so list him as an injury risk. Martin Perez had his best season as an MLB pitcher last year at age 31. It wasn't all smoke and mirrors, but if he can repeat, I'd consider it a victory. With the injury cloud overhead, Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning will undoubtedly be a part of the rotation at times. They fit as lower upside No. 4 or 5 starters. There is some potential help down on the farm in guys like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Cole Winn and Brock Porter, but none of them is likely be up before midseason, if that soon. Buying Rangers is a leap of faith.

I still think closer Jose Leclerc is a potential bright spot in the bullpen. I was high on him when it was apparent the Rangers needed a new end-gamer a couple years ago, and I continued to see a lot to like when he was struggling. I'm not ready to give up on him. The other name to know here is Jonathan Hernandez. He's a ninth-inning option, but I think he will be more useful in a primary set-up role. Others being counted upon in what looks like a pen with some potential, include Taylor Hearn, Reyes Moronta and maybe Brett Martin. Given the rotation health concerns, the bullpen will probably be heavily relied upon.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to own: If Gray stays healthy, he could take a step forward this season.

He'll likely be overpriced: Perez finally showed a little, but a repeat could be tough.

Best of the bullpen: Leclerc has the tools to be a closer. He just needs to show it.

Next week we'll evaluate pitching staffs in the NL West.