Offseason Deep Dives: Ronel Blanco

On the surface, Ronel Blanco looks like one of the most obvious regression candidates in baseball. I'm not so sure. 

Let's get back to that later, though. First, we need to review how Blanco went from being undrafted in most leagues to finishing as a top-20 fantasy starter.

Blanco made seven starts for the Astros in 2023, but they didn't go all that well, with the right-hander holding a 4.74 ERA and 35:21 K:BB over 38 innings. He was used mostly as a starter that year at Triple-A Sugar Land, as well, which was the first time since 2017 that he'd been given regular turns in a rotation.

Between the Astros, Sugar Land and winter ball, Blanco totaled 134.1 innings in 2023. That was easily a professional high, topping the 88 frames he threw in the minors back in 2017. It's an unusual career arc, as he entered his age-30 season last year, but on the bright side it did seemingly set Blanco up to handle more of a workload in 2024.

Entering last spring training, it was very much in question as to whether Blanco would open the season in the Astros' rotation. However, injuries to Justin Verlander (shoulder), Jose Urquidy (forearm) and J.P. France (shoulder), along with the continued rehabs of Lance McCullers (forearm) and Luis Garcia (elbow), meant Houston had little choice but to stick Blanco in their starting five. That he tossed 15.2 scoreless innings during Grapefruit League play also didn't hurt his case.

To say Blanco's campaign got off to a good start would be quite an understatement. He spun baseball's first of three no-hitters during the 2024 season on April 1 at home against the Blue Jays, striking out seven and walking two while throwing 105 pitches. Blanco then followed that up in a road start versus the Rangers with six shutout frames and just one hit allowed. The right-hander finished April with a 1.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 30:14 K:BB across 32.2 innings. In 18 first-half starts, Blanco posted a 2.56 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 100:42 K:BB over 109 frames.

Blanco's worst month was August, when he held a 4.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts. It was fair to wonder whether he'd finally hit a wall, considering he'd already exceeded 140 innings by the end of that month. However, Blanco then bounced back with a 0.75 ERA in September and two scoreless innings in his lone postseason appearance.

The Astros did their best to space out Blanco's starts as he ventured into uncharted workload territory. Less than one-fourth of his starts (seven of 29) came on a "normal" four days of rest. He made 15 starts on five days' rest and another seven starts on six-plus days' rest. For what it's worth, Blanco was plenty effective when pitching on regular rest, collecting a 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 33:13 K:BB over 38 innings. Presumably, the Astros will be asking him to take the ball on four days' rest a lot more often in 2025. While it's a mystery as to how he'd handle doing that with regularity, it's somewhat comforting that he seemed to have no issues with it this season.

There's no question Blanco had luck on his side in 2024.

Pitchers can certainly do their part in keeping the above numbers low. Suppressing hard contact is one way, and Blanco did that pretty well on the whole with a hard-hit rate (35.5 percent) in the 76th percentile. His barrel rate (9.3 percent), though, ranked in just the 19th percentile. A good defense behind you can also help, and the Astros ranked fourth as a team in Deserved Runs Prevented. However, other metrics had them right around average. So, yes, it's clear that Blanco was fortunate. His 2.80 ERA was the fourth-best mark in the game, but ERA indicators like xERA (4.00) and FIP (4.15) painted a less rosy (and probably more accurate) picture.

Blanco was highly successful in 2024 in spite of his four-seam fastball. The pitch earned a minus-3 Run Value and a hideous .406 xwOBA. Both marks were somehow improvements over what his four-seamer did in 2023, as it had a minus-13 Run Value and .472 xwOBA that year. Blanco threw his four-seamer 38.3 percent of the time in 2024, which isn't super high usage for a fastball but was nonetheless his most-used offering. That the right-hander had such a good year while his most-used pitch rated so poorly was a miracle, frankly. There was a 40-point gap between Blanco's xwOBA (.406) and actual wOBA (.366).

Now it's time to talk about why I believe Blanco might not regress as much as people think in 2025. It's because his three pitches other than the fastball are good. Like, really good.

Blanco's slider, in particular, is a standout offering. Below is where the pitch ranked among other sliders in terms of Run Value.

Blanco uses his changeup (22.1 percent) and curveball (9.4 percent) less than his slider (30.2 percent), but the changeup and curveball were excellent pitches for him in 2024, as well.

Blanco needs to figure something out with his fastball. Maybe simply throwing fewer of them is the move. Perhaps he could switch to a two-seamer, which should also make him less of a flyball pitcher and less prone to the home run issues that have occasionally plagued him. I'm not sure what the solution is, but we have enough data now to know that the same gameplan with the four-seamer in 2025 isn't a good idea.

The good news is, even with the fastball being a question mark, Blanco has a great base of three other terrific offerings to work with. Having three pitches that produced a .283 xwOBA or lower and 33.3 percent whiff rate or higher should be the envy of most pitchers.

The Astros' defense at third base will experience a sharp downgrade in going from Alex Bregman to Isaac Paredes, but the upgrade at first base might be even bigger. Houston had a league-worst minus-13 Outs Above Average at first in 2024 but will now turn to Christian Walker, who has been easily baseball's best first base defender three years running. The Astros also figure to be better in left field with Yordan Alvarez expected to spend more time at designated hitter. As far as offensive support for Blanco goes, Houston was seventh in baseball with a .321 wOBA last season. They've lost Kyle Tucker and Bregman while gaining Walker and Paredes, which is a net loss. It does seem like they'll add at least one more bat, though, and an above-average offense in 2025 still seems likely.

Blanco's ADP in NFBC drafts currently sits at 231.99, with a min pick of 166 and max pick of 303. He's the 69th starting pitcher coming off the board after finishing as SP13 in 2024. No, I'm not expecting Blanco to be a top-20 pitcher again. Yes, I believe the market is overcorrecting, making him a very good value where he's currently being taken.